LUXLUX

19:45Tue 29 Sep

ISL

ICE

Luxembourg vs Iceland

CLASS A

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THE BETLIVELY · 10-ODDS · 100-ODDS ·…

TOTAL GOALS

Class A

LUXv

ICE

Over 1.5 Goals

Luxembourg v Iceland

International - UEFA… · 19:45

1.36odds

74%book

-3edge

1/1angles

THE READ

Match details. UEFA Nations League, League C - 2. Kick-off is Tue 29 Sep, 19:45 Lagos time. It is played at Stade de Luxembourg. The referee is Enea Jorgji.

What's at stake. Luxembourg are 1st on 3 points after 1 game, 2 points clear of Estonia. Iceland are 3rd on 1 point after 1 game, level on points with Estonia, 1 point clear of Bulgaria. A win would take them above Estonia.

Form. Luxembourg have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L L. In this competition Luxembourg have gone W W W D. Iceland have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W D L. In this competition Iceland have gone D L L L.

The numbers. Luxembourg score 1.2 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Luxembourg average 8.9 shots (3.1 on target), 2.9 corners and 3.0 cards a game, with 48% of the ball. Iceland score one and concede two a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Iceland average 12.0 shots (4.3 on target), 6.0 corners and 1.3 cards a game, with 58% of the ball.

Head to head. In the last two meetings Luxembourg have won one, drawn one and lost none. One of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 13 Oct 2023, it finished Luxembourg 1-1 Iceland: Luxembourg had 8 shots to 17, 41% of the ball, seven yellow cards.

Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: Iceland are the stronger side on form and the table, but both teams' records favour Luxembourg.

The read. No side to back. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side.

The bets. No best bet: the strongest pick did not fit the read of this game. Predicted score: Luxembourg 2-1 Iceland (9% chance).

The agreed story. No side to back (Iceland the favourite), goals in between.

Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Luxembourg in their last internationals: won 2-1 at Bulgaria. Iceland in their last internationals: drew 1-1 v Estonia. Too few internationals to judge the side from.

So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Over 1.5 GoalsMAININ CODES

1.36

LUX 4 of 5 (80%) · ISL 5 of 5 (100%)70.6%

Luxembourg: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · Iceland: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 89% · each game weighed by who it was against

Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

2.10

LUX 3 of 5 (60%) · ISL 3 of 5 (60%)41.4%

Luxembourg: over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home · Iceland: over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 62% · each game weighed by who it was against

ICELAND GOALS

Iceland Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.29

ISL 4 of 5 (80%) · LUX 4 of 5 (80%)69.2%

Iceland scored in 4 of 5 away · Luxembourg conceded in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 91% · each game weighed by who it was against

HALVES

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5BACKUPPAGE ONLY

1.30

LUX 5 of 5 (100%) · ISL 4 of 5 (80%)94.7%

Luxembourg: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · Iceland: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 92% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Luxembourg or Over 2.5 Goals (no result call); Double Chance: Luxembourg or Iceland (no result call); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Luxembourg or Over 1.5 Goals (no result call); Iceland or Over 1.5 Goals (no result call); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 2–1 8.6%

Luxembourg goals →

Iceland goals ↓

0-07%

1-08%

2-06%

3-03%

4-01%

5-00.3%

0-18%

1-113%

2-19%

3-14%

4-11%

5-10.4%

0-26%

1-28%

2-26%

3-23%

4-21.0%

5-20.3%

0-32%

1-34%

2-33%

3-31%

4-30.4%

5-30.1%

0-40.8%

1-41%

2-40.8%

3-40.4%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.2%

1-50.3%

2-50.2%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

LUXEMBOURGDLLLLLLWWW1.00 PPG

ICELANDLLLWLLDWLD0.80 PPG

THE NUMBERS

LUXEMBOURG HOMExICELAND AWAY

1.00SCORED A GAME1.701.60CONCEDED A GAME2.1020%CLEAN SHEETS20%2.86CORNERS A GAME6.003.00CARDS A GAME1.330.38xG1.221.83xG AGAINST0.98

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 2

LUXEMBOURG 1 · 50%DRAW 1ICELAND 0 · 0%

2023-09-08Luxembourg 3 – 1 Iceland

2023-10-13Luxembourg 1 – 1 Iceland

TRENDS

Luxembourg have scored in 50% of their games.

Iceland have scored in 90% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAhead to headleague tableteam newscornerscards