FINFIN

17:00Tue 29 Sep

BLR

BEL

Finland vs Belarus

CLASS A

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THE READ

Match details. UEFA Nations League, League C - 2. Kick-off is Tue 29 Sep, 17:00 Lagos time. It is played at Helsinki Olympic Stadium. The referee is Nikola Dabanovic.

What's at stake. Finland are 1st on 3 points after 1 game, level on points with Albania. Belarus are 3rd on 0 points after 1 game, 3 points behind Albania, level on points with San Marino. A win would take them level on points with Albania.

Form. Finland have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L L W. In this competition Finland have gone W. Belarus have won none, drawn four and lost six of their last ten, 0.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D D L L. In this competition Belarus have gone L D L D.

The numbers. Finland score 1.7 and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. Finland average 12.4 shots (6.2 on target), 4.2 corners and 1.0 cards a game, with 54% of the ball. Belarus score 0.8 and concede 2.3 a game in their last six away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Belarus average 10.2 shots (2.0 on target), 3.8 corners and 2.5 cards a game, with 34% of the ball.

The case against. Belarus's record still gives them 29% to win.

The read. Finland to win. Finland are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Finland.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Finland 2-1 Belarus (9% chance).

The agreed story. Finland or the draw, goals in between.

Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Finland in their last internationals: won 7-0 at San Marino. Belarus in their last internationals: lost 0-2 at Albania. Too few internationals to judge the side from.

So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Finland or Both Teams ScoreIN CODES

1.15

FIN 7 of 10 (70%) · BLR 6 of 6 (100%)78.3%

Finland: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Belarus: the bet landed in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 72% · each game weighed by who it was against

Double Chance: Finland or DrawLEANPAGE ONLY

1.14

FIN 6 of 10 (60%) · BLR 6 of 6 (100%)71%

Finland unbeaten in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Belarus failed to win 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 71% · each game weighed by who it was against

Finland (Draw No Bet)LEANPAGE ONLY

1.21

FIN 5 of 9 (56%) · BLR 6 of 6 (100%)71%

Finland won 5 of 9 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · Belarus lost 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · both last 10: 69% · each game weighed by who it was against · won 6, refunded 2, lost 2

Finland or Over 2.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.28

FIN 8 of 10 (80%) · BLR 5 of 6 (83%)61%

Finland: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Belarus: the bet landed in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 77% · each game weighed by who it was against

Finland or Draw & Over 1.5LEANPAGE ONLY

1.66

FIN 5 of 10 (50%) · BLR 6 of 6 (100%)55.5%

Finland: the bet landed in 5 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Belarus: the bet landed in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 63% · each game weighed by who it was against

GOALS

Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

2.25

FIN 6 of 10 (60%) · BLR 3 of 6 (50%)40%

Finland: over 2.5 goals in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Belarus: over 2.5 goals in 3 of 6 away · both last 10: 54% · each game weighed by who it was against

FINLAND GOALS

Finland Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.16

FIN 7 of 10 (70%) · BLR 6 of 6 (100%)76.3%

Finland scored in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Belarus conceded in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 72% · each game weighed by who it was against

HALVES

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.33

FIN 8 of 10 (80%) · BLR 5 of 6 (83%)79.4%

Finland: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Belarus: the bet landed in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 78% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

Under 1.5 first-half goalsLEANHELD · the odds board 74%

1.36

FIN 5 of 10 (50%) · BLR 4 of 6 (67%)52.8%

Finland: the bet landed in 5 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Belarus: the bet landed in 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 54% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Finland Win & Over 1.5 (the numbers (32%) and the records (50%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); Finland Over 1.5 goals (the numbers (46%) and the records (62%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); Finland to Win (the numbers (39%) and the records (52%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); 1st Half - GG/NG: No (the numbers (71%) and the records (98%) are 27 points apart, and nothing settles it)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 2–1 8.7%

Finland goals →

Belarus goals ↓

0-06%

1-07%

2-06%

3-03%

4-01%

5-00.4%

0-17%

1-112%

2-19%

3-14%

4-12%

5-10.5%

0-25%

1-28%

2-26%

3-23%

4-21%

5-20.4%

0-33%

1-34%

2-33%

3-32%

4-30.6%

5-30.2%

0-40.9%

1-41%

2-41%

3-40.6%

4-40.2%

5-40.1%

0-50.3%

1-50.4%

2-50.3%

3-50.2%

4-50.1%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

FINLANDWDLWLWLLWW1.60 PPG

BELARUSDLDLLLLDDL0.40 PPG

THE NUMBERS

FINLAND HOMExBELARUS AWAY

1.70SCORED A GAME0.601.40CONCEDED A GAME2.3020%CLEAN SHEETS10%4.20CORNERS A GAME3.751.00CARDS A GAME2.501.32xG0.671.46xG AGAINST2.44

TRENDS

Finland have scored in 70% of their games.

Belarus have scored in 50% of their games.

Finland kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

Belarus kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetsleague tableteam newscornerscards