Japan vs Ecuador
Match details. An international friendly, Semi-finals. Kick-off is Thu 1 Oct, 11:10 Lagos time. It is played at Yokohama Stadium.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level. It is a friendly, so no points ride on it.
Form. Japan have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W D W. Ecuador have won three, drawn five and lost two of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D L W.
The numbers. Japan score three and concede 0.4 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Japan average 10.3 shots (4.3 on target), 5.4 corners and 1.0 cards a game. Ecuador score none and concede 0.6 a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets and five games without a goal. Ecuador average 10.2 shots (3.8 on target), 3.9 corners and 2.4 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 28% against the records' 58%.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 15%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Japan 1-0 Ecuador (19% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Japan the favourite), a tight game.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).