JAPJPN

11:25Mon 28 Sep

VEN

VEN

Japan vs Venezuela

CLASS A

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THE READ

Match details. An international friendly. Kick-off is Mon 28 Sep, 11:25 Lagos time. It is played at Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima.

What's at stake. It is a friendly, so no points ride on it.

Form. Japan have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W D W. Venezuela have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L L W.

The numbers. Japan score three and concede 0.4 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Japan average 11.0 shots (4.8 on target), 4.2 corners and 0.8 cards a game, with 51% of the ball. Venezuela score 0.8 and concede 2.6 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Venezuela average 9.4 shots (4.0 on target), 2.7 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 35% of the ball.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 81% against the records' 57%.

The read. No firm call: Japan are the better side, but not at this price. Their goals for and against make Japan the likelier winners; Japan are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Japan.

The bets. No best bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: Japan 1-0 Venezuela (13% chance).

The agreed story. No side to back (Japan the favourite), goals in between.

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.16

JPN 89% of 5 · VEN 89% of 588.4%

Japan: under 4.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home · Venezuela: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 87% · each game weighed by who it was against

Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.24

JPN 69% of 5 · VEN 100% of 564.9%

Japan: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · Venezuela: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 79% · each game weighed by who it was against

JAPAN GOALS

Japan Over 1.5 goalsLEANHELD · the odds board 70%

1.42

JPN 22% of 5 · VEN 100% of 540.4%

Japan scored over 1.5 in 3 of 5 at home · Venezuela conceded over 1.5 in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 53% · each game weighed by who it was against

HALVES

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.19

JPN 69% of 5 · VEN 100% of 584.6%

Japan: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Venezuela: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 85% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

2nd Half - Japan Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.31

JPN 69% of 5 · VEN 100% of 576.2%

Japan: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Venezuela: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 60% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–0 12.7%

Japan goals →

Venezuela goals ↓

0-08%

1-013%

2-012%

3-07%

4-03%

5-01%

0-15%

1-111%

2-110%

3-16%

4-13%

5-11.0%

0-22%

1-24%

2-24%

3-22%

4-21%

5-20.4%

0-30.6%

1-31%

2-31%

3-30.6%

4-30.3%

5-30.1%

0-40.1%

1-40.2%

2-40.2%

3-40.1%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.0%

1-50.0%

2-50.0%

3-50.0%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).

FORM · LAST 10

JAPANDLWWWWDWDL1.80 PPG

VENEZUELALDLLWWLLLW1.00 PPG

THE NUMBERS

JAPAN HOMExVENEZUELA AWAY

2.30SCORED A GAME1.500.70CONCEDED A GAME2.1050%CLEAN SHEETS30%4.20CORNERS A GAME2.710.80CARDS A GAME2.00

TRENDS

Japan have scored in 80% of their games.

Venezuela have scored in 70% of their games.

Japan kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.

Venezuela kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetscornerscards