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Match details. UEFA Nations League. Kick-off is Thu 1 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time.
Form. Greece have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D W L. Netherlands have won six, drawn four and lost none of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D D W W.
The numbers. Greece score 1.6 and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. Greece average 14.1 shots (4.1 on target), 4.0 corners and 2.1 cards a game. Netherlands score 2.7 and concede 0.8 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets. Netherlands average 15.1 shots (6.5 on target), 8.0 corners and 1.0 cards a game.
The case against. Greece's record still gives them 23% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 62%.
The read. Netherlands to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Netherlands the likelier winners; Netherlands are the stronger side on form and the table.
The bets. Best bet: Draw or Netherlands at 1.33, rated 77% (Netherlands unbeaten in 10 of 10; Greece failed to win 5 of 10). Full cover: Greece Over 0.5 Goals at 1.31. Whenever the best bet loses, this one wins. Predicted score: Greece 0-2 Netherlands (8% chance).
The agreed story. Netherlands or the draw, a tight game.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Greece in their last internationals: won 1-0 at Germany, won 2-1 at Serbia. Netherlands in their last internationals: won 2-1 at Serbia, drew 1-1 v Germany. Too few internationals to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
PICKSONE LIST
RESULT
Netherlands or Draw (1UP)IN CODES
1.24
NED 5 of 5 (100%) · GRE 10 of 10 (100%)88%
Netherlands scored first 4 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 5 · led or was unbeaten in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Greece trailed or failed to win in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · each game weighed by who it was against
Double Chance: Draw or NetherlandsMAININ CODES
1.35
NED 10 of 10 (100%) · GRE 5 of 10 (50%)78.9%
Netherlands unbeaten in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Greece failed to win 5 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 77% · each game weighed by who it was against
Netherlands or Under 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
1.32
NED 9 of 10 (90%) · GRE 6 of 10 (60%)78.5%
Netherlands: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Greece: the bet landed in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 76% · each game weighed by who it was against
Netherlands (Draw No Bet)PAGE ONLY
1.63
NED 6 of 6 (100%) · GRE 4 of 9 (44%)78.2%
Netherlands won 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · Greece lost 4 of 9 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · both last 10: 76% · each game weighed by who it was against · won 5, refunded 1, lost 2
Netherlands 1UPLEANPAGE ONLY
1.54
NED 4 of 5 (80%) · GRE 8 of 10 (80%)48%
Netherlands scored first 4 of last 5, led in 4 · led in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Greece trailed in 3 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · each game weighed by who it was against
GOALS
1.21
GRE 8 of 10 (80%) · NED 9 of 10 (90%)89.7%
Greece: under 4.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Netherlands: under 4.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 88% · each game weighed by who it was against
Under 3.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.52
GRE 6 of 10 (60%) · NED 4 of 10 (40%)61.4%
Greece: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Netherlands: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 59% · each game weighed by who it was against
GREECE GOALS
Greece Over 0.5 goalsFULL COVERLEANIN CODES
1.31
GRE 7 of 10 (70%) · NED 7 of 10 (70%)63.9%
Greece scored in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Netherlands conceded in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 82% · each game weighed by who it was against
NETHERLANDS GOALS
Netherlands Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES
1.19
NED 10 of 10 (100%) · GRE 7 of 10 (70%)67.3%
Netherlands scored in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Greece conceded in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85% · each game weighed by who it was against
HALVES
Under 1.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY
1.57
GRE 7 of 10 (70%) · NED 7 of 10 (70%)76.4%
Greece: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Netherlands: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 74% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
Over 0.5 first-half goalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.34
GRE 7 of 10 (70%) · NED 8 of 10 (80%)66.8%
Greece: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Netherlands: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 67% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
CORNERS
1.45
GRE 8 of 10 (80%) · NED 6 of 10 (60%)70.4%
Greece's games: over 7.5 corners in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Netherlands's games: over 7.5 corners in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 70% · each game weighed by who it was against
CARDS
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GRE 10 of 10 (100%) · NED 8 of 10 (80%)88.2%
Greece's games: over 1.5 cards in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Netherlands's games: over 1.5 cards in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 88% · each game weighed by who it was against
Left off the list: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))
TRENDS
Greece have scored in 70% of their games.
Netherlands have scored in 100% of their games.
Greece kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.
Netherlands kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.