AUSAUS

11:00Tue 29 Sep

BRA

BRA

Australia vs Brazil

CLASS A

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THE READ

Match details. An international friendly. Kick-off is Tue 29 Sep, 11:00 Lagos time. It is played at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane.

What's at stake. It is a friendly, so no points ride on it.

Form. Australia have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W W W. Brazil have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W D.

The numbers. Australia score 2.8 and concede 0.4 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Australia average 7.2 shots (3.2 on target), 3.5 corners and 1.0 cards a game, with 39% of the ball. Brazil score 1.5 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets and two games without a goal. Brazil average 14.6 shots (5.5 on target), 5.8 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 58% of the ball.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 14% against the records' 62%.

The read. No firm call: Australia are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Australia the likelier winners; Australia are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Australia. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 36%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Australia 1-0 Brazil (14% chance).

The agreed story. No side to back (Australia the favourite), a tight game.

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.23

AUS 3 of 5 (60%) · BRA 9 of 10 (90%)88.6%

Australia: under 4.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home · Brazil: under 4.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 89% · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–0 13.8%

Australia goals →

Brazil goals ↓

0-011%

1-014%

2-010%

3-05%

4-02%

5-00.5%

0-18%

1-113%

2-19%

3-14%

4-11%

5-10.4%

0-24%

1-25%

2-24%

3-22%

4-20.6%

5-20.2%

0-31%

1-32%

2-31%

3-30.5%

4-30.2%

5-30.1%

0-40.2%

1-40.3%

2-40.2%

3-40.1%

4-40.0%

5-40.0%

0-50.0%

1-50.1%

2-50.0%

3-50.0%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

AUSTRALIADWWWWWWWLD2.30 PPG

BRAZILLDWWLDWWWL1.70 PPG

THE NUMBERS

AUSTRALIA HOMExBRAZIL AWAY

2.00SCORED A GAME1.500.70CONCEDED A GAME0.9050%CLEAN SHEETS50%33%FAILED TO SCORE0%3.50CORNERS A GAME5.751.00CARDS A GAME1.620.69xG2.330.89xG AGAINST0.78

TRENDS

Australia have scored in 80% of their games.

Brazil have scored in 80% of their games.

Australia kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.

Brazil kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetscornerscards