CLCAL

20:00Mon 12 Oct

VEL

CA Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield

CLASS B

THE READ

Match details. Primera LPF, Clausura - 12. Kick-off is Mon 12 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Ciudad de Lanus, Buenos Aires. The referee is Sebastian Nicolas Martinez.

What's at stake. CA Lanus are 5th on 17 points after 11 games, 4 points behind Velez Sarsfield, level on points with Newells Old Boys. Velez Sarsfield are 4th on 21 points after 11 games, level on points with Boca Juniors, 4 points clear of Lanus. A win would take them above Boca Juniors.

Form. CA Lanus have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W W L. Velez Sarsfield have won three, drawn seven and lost none of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W D W D.

The numbers. CA Lanus score one and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. CA Lanus average 4.3 corners and 2.4 cards a game. Velez Sarsfield score 1.3 and concede one a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets. Velez Sarsfield average 4.2 corners and 2.1 cards a game.

The case against. Velez Sarsfield's record still gives them 37% to win.

The read. CA Lanus or the draw. A draw is live. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 38%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: CA Lanus 1-1 Velez Sarsfield (13% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Under 5.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

CAL 5 of 5 (100%) · VEL 9 of 9 (100%)97.8%

CA Lanus: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · Velez Sarsfield: under 5.5 goals in 9 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 100% · CA Lanus: only games against sides at Velez Sarsfield's level · Velez Sarsfield: only games against sides at CA Lanus's level

Under 4.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

CAL 5 of 5 (100%) · VEL 8 of 9 (89%)89.4%

CA Lanus: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · Velez Sarsfield: under 4.5 goals in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 94% · CA Lanus: only games against sides at Velez Sarsfield's level · Velez Sarsfield: only games against sides at CA Lanus's level

CA LANUS GOALS

CA Lanus Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.33

CAL 4 of 5 (80%) · VEL 7 of 9 (78%)74.8%

CA Lanus scored in 4 of 5 at home · Velez Sarsfield conceded in 7 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 74% · CA Lanus: only games against sides at Velez Sarsfield's level · Velez Sarsfield: only games against sides at CA Lanus's level

Left off the list: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 13.4%

CA Lanus goals →

Velez Sarsfield goals ↓

0-09%

1-010%

2-07%

3-03%

4-01%

5-00.3%

0-18%

1-113%

2-19%

3-14%

4-11%

5-10.4%

0-25%

1-27%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.8%

5-20.2%

0-32%

1-33%

2-32%

3-30.9%

4-30.3%

5-30.1%

0-40.6%

1-40.8%

2-40.6%

3-40.3%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.1%

1-50.2%

2-50.1%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

CA LANUSDWWWLDLWLL1.40 PPG

VELEZ SARSFIELDDWDWDDDDDW1.60 PPG

THE NUMBERS

CA LANUS HOMExVELEZ SARSFIELD AWAY

1.18SCORED A GAME1.550.82CONCEDED A GAME1.0040%BOTH SCORED70%40%CLEAN SHEETS30%4.29CORNERS A GAME4.252.39CARDS A GAME2.11

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

VELEZ SARSFIELD 0:3 HANDICAP

–

134 OF 142

NO PRICE YET

The tips say a tight game and the Bank expects under 2.3 goals.

BOTH HALVES OVER 1.5: NO

–

138 OF 151

NO PRICE YET

The tips say a tight game and the Bank expects under 2.3 goals.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE QUALITY READ

1.83POINTS A GAME2.00+0.67GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.50-1.8SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+1.02.0LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.86LEAGUE GAMES8

No quality side: neither club is ahead on more of these.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

53%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

19%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

96%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

CA LANUS OR DRAW

94%

VERY GOOD · 80/85

VELEZ SARSFIELD OR DRAW

66%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (6 and 8 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

CA LANUSxVELEZ SARSFIELD

5GAMES51.20SCORED A GAME1.400.40CONCEDED A GAME1.001.6GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.440%OVER 1.5 GOALS80%40%OVER 2.5 GOALS20%20%BOTH SCORE80%3.4CARDS IN THEIR GAMES–10.0CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

CA Lanus have scored in 70% of their games.

Velez Sarsfield have scored in 90% of their games.

CA Lanus kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

Velez Sarsfield kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetsleague tablecornerscards