Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo
Match details. MLS, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 01:30 Lagos time. It is played at Allianz Field, Sao Paulo. The referee is Marcos De Oliveira.
What's at stake. Minnesota United FC are 14th on 29 points after 27 games, 2 points behind Austin, 8 points clear of Sporting Kansas City. A win would take them above Austin. Houston Dynamo are 5th on 44 points after 27 games, 1 point behind San Jose Earthquakes, 3 points clear of Los Angeles FC. A win would take them above San Jose Earthquakes. Minnesota United FC have nothing left to play for, while Houston Dynamo need the win.
Team news. Minnesota United FC are without J. Diaz (yellow cards), J. Pereyra (muscle injury), A. Smir (knee injury), P. Stroud (muscle injury), J. Diaz (yellow cards), J. Pereyra (muscle injury). J. Pereyra is their main creator. Houston Dynamo are without H. Herrera (red card), J. Maurer (concussion), A. Resch (lower-body injury), H. Herrera (red card), J. Maurer (concussion), A. Resch (lower-body injury). A. Resch is their centre-back.
Form. Minnesota United FC have won one, drawn three and lost six of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L L. In this competition Minnesota United FC have gone L L L L L D. Houston Dynamo have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L W D. In this competition Houston Dynamo have gone L D L W D D.
The numbers. Minnesota United FC score 1.6 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Minnesota United FC average 13.8 shots (5.0 on target), 4.9 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 46% of the ball. Houston Dynamo score 0.8 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Houston Dynamo average 13.2 shots (3.8 on target), 4.4 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 50% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Minnesota United FC have won six, drawn one and lost three. Six of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, Minnesota United FC won one, one was drawn and Houston Dynamo won two. The last time they met, on 26 Jun 2025, it finished Minnesota United FC 3-1 Houston Dynamo: Minnesota United FC had 9 shots to 13, 36% of the ball, five yellow cards.
The case against. Houston Dynamo's record still gives them 50% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 55%. Not everything agrees on goals: six of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.
The read. Minnesota United FC or the draw. A draw is live. A tight game. Houston Dynamo are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Houston Dynamo.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.48, 71% on the records (Minnesota United FC: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home; Houston Dynamo: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.19. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Minnesota United FC Over 0.5 goals (Houston Dynamo's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Minnesota United FC 1-1 Houston Dynamo (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).