INTERNATIONAL - INT. FRIENDLY GAMES
02:00Sun 27 Sep
COL
COL
Mexico vs Colombia
CLASS A
THE READ
No firm call on the result; the likeliest score is 1-1. Colombia have won three of the last three meetings. Not much gets past Colombia, about one a game, Mexico average nearly two a game. Colombia have kept a clean sheet in about one game in four. Mexico have five wins from six. Do not expect much before the break. A clean one, not many bookings. No main bet: nothing we back is priced at 1.15 or more.
Bet: Under 3.5 Goals
WHY — 4 THINGS AGREE, 0 AGAINST
Angles that agree4/4 lit
MEX CLEAN 80%
COL CLEAN 60%
MEX 9/10
COL 7/10
Mexico keep a clean sheet in 80% of their games
Colombia keep a clean sheet in 60% of their games
Mexico saw this bet land in 9 of their last 10 games
Colombia saw this bet land in 7 of their last 10 games
PICKS & CONFIDENCEONE PER MARKET
STRONG · WAITING FOR A PRICE
TOTAL GOALS
Under 3.5 GoalsMAINNOT IN CODES
no price yet
4 of 4 agree78.6%
Backed by: Mexico: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 7 at home · Colombia: under 3.5 goals in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80%
OR HOME UNDER 2.5
Mexico or Under 2.5 Goals
no price yet
1 of 1 agree73.6%
Backed by: Mexico: the bet landed in 6 of 7 at home · Colombia: the bet landed in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75%
FIRST HALF GOALS
1st Half Under 1.5 GoalsNOT IN CODES
no price yet
2 of 2 agree70.5%
Backed by: Mexico: the bet landed in 5 of 7 at home · Colombia: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 70% · on half-time scores
DC1UP 1X
Mexico or Draw (1UP)
no price yet
1 of 1 agree70%
Backed by: Mexico scored first 3 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 4 · led or was unbeaten in 4 of 5 at home · Colombia trailed or failed to win in 3 of 6 (last 10, all venues)
SCORELINES
Most likely score
1 – 1 14%
Mexico goals →
Colombia goals ↓
0-014%
1-013%
2-07%
3-03%
4-00.7%
5-00.1%
0-112%
1-114%
2-17%
3-13%
4-10.7%
5-10.1%
0-26%
1-27%
2-24%
3-21%
4-20.3%
5-20.1%
0-32%
1-32%
2-31%
3-30.4%
4-30.1%
5-30.0%
0-40.5%
1-40.6%
2-40.3%
3-40.1%
4-40.0%
5-40.0%
0-50.1%
1-50.1%
2-50.1%
3-50.0%
4-50.0%
5-50.0%
Every scoreline's chance from expected goals 1.06 – 1.0. Brighter squares are likelier; the most likely score is lit.
FORM · LAST 10
MEXICOWDWWWWWWWL2.50 PPG
COLOMBIALDDDWWWWDW1.90 PPG
THE NUMBERS
MEXICO HOMExCOLOMBIA AWAY
1.70SCORED A GAME1.800.40CONCEDED A GAME0.9080%CLEAN SHEETS60%12%FAILED TO SCORE0%
TRENDS
Mexico have scored in 90% of their games.
Colombia have scored in 70% of their games.
Mexico kept a clean sheet in 80% of their games.
Colombia kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games.
BUILT FROM
form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetscornerscards