SPAIN - PRIMERA FEDERACION
19:30Sun 27 Sep
ADA
AA
Real Madrid Castilla vs AD Alcorcon
CLASS D
THE BETLIVELY · 10-ODDS · 100-ODDS ·…
74
TOTAL GOALS
Class D
Under 3.5 Goals
Real Madrid Castilla v AD Alcorcon
1.29odds
78%book
-4edge
3/3angles
THE READ
No firm call on the result: the stats split - the division gap backs Real Madrid Castilla, goal difference backs AD Alcorcon. The call: under 2.5 goals and both teams to score on the counts. AD Alcorcon are unbeaten in their last six, two of them wins. Level pegging on the table. Slow start likely, first-half goals have been rare for both. In the last four meetings Real Madrid Castilla won one, AD Alcorcon won two and one were drawn. The worry: three of the last four meetings had three goals or more. The bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 73.6%.
Bet: Under 3.5 Goals
PICKS · EVERY MARKETCOUNTED
RESULT
Draw or AD AlcorconCARD ONLY
1.68
REA 7/10 · ADA 4/573.6%
AD Alcorcon unbeaten in 4 of 5 away · Real Madrid Castilla failed to win 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 70% · H2H 3 of 4
GOALS 1.5
Over 1.5 goalsIN CODES
1.28
REA 7/10 · ADA 4/577.1%
Real Madrid Castilla: over 1.5 goals in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · AD Alcorcon: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 70% · H2H 4 of 4
GOALS 2.5
Under 2.5 goalsLEANCARD ONLY
1.78
REA 6/10 · ADA 3/553.6%
Real Madrid Castilla: under 2.5 goals in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · AD Alcorcon: under 2.5 goals in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 55% · H2H 1 of 4
GOALS 3.5
Under 3.5 goalsMAININ CODES
1.29
REA 7/10 · ADA 4/573.6%
Real Madrid Castilla: under 3.5 goals in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · AD Alcorcon: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 70% · H2H 3 of 4
BOTH TEAMS SCORE
Both teams score: YesLEANCARD ONLY
1.73
REA 4/10 · ADA 4/562.9%
Real Madrid Castilla: both scored in 4 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · AD Alcorcon: both scored in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 50% · H2H 4 of 4
REAL MADRID CASTILLA GOALS
Real Madrid Castilla under 1.5 goalsLEANCARD ONLY
1.68
REA 6/10 · ADA 3/562.1%
Real Madrid Castilla scored under 1.5 in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · AD Alcorcon conceded under 1.5 in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 60% · H2H 3 of 4
AD ALCORCON GOALS
AD Alcorcon under 2.5 goalsCARD ONLY
no price yet
REA 7/10 · ADA 5/580.7%
AD Alcorcon scored under 2.5 in 5 of 5 away · Real Madrid Castilla conceded under 2.5 in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · H2H 3 of 4
FIRST HALF GOALS
First half over 0.5 goalsNOT IN CODES
no price yet
REA 7/10 · ADA 4/578.6%
Real Madrid Castilla's games: first half over 0.5 goals in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · AD Alcorcon's games: first half over 0.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 75% · H2H 4 of 4 · on half-time scores
CORNERS
Under 12.5 cornersCARD ONLY
no price yet
REA 5/9 · ADA 5/576.1%
Real Madrid Castilla's games: under 12.5 corners in 5 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · AD Alcorcon's games: under 12.5 corners in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 73%
CARDS (YELLOW 1, RED 2)
Over 3.5 cardsCARD ONLY
no price yet
REA 8/9 · ADA 4/584.4%
Real Madrid Castilla's games: over 3.5 cards in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · AD Alcorcon's games: over 3.5 cards in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 84%
SHOTS (BOTH TEAMS)
Over 17.5 shotsCARD ONLY
no price yet
REA 9/9 · ADA 3/580%
Real Madrid Castilla's games: over 17.5 shots in 9 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · AD Alcorcon's games: over 17.5 shots in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 80%
Predicted score 1–1 (12.8%, the likeliest score that fits the read and the picks at 70% or more) · agrees with: no firm call: a draw or one goal, result, over 1.5, under 3.5, AD Alcorcon under 2.5
WHY — 3 THINGS AGREE, 0 AGAINST
Angles that agree3/3 lit
H2H 75%
REA 7/10
ADA 7/10
This has landed in 75% of the last 4 between them
Real Madrid Castilla saw this bet land in 7 of their last 10 games
AD Alcorcon saw this bet land in 7 of their last 10 games
SCORELINES
Predicted score
1 – 1 13%
Over 1.5 77.1%
Real Madrid Castilla goals →
AD Alcorcon goals ↓
0-08%
1-010%
2-06%
3-02%
4-00.7%
5-00.2%
0-111%
1-113%
2-18%
3-13%
4-10.9%
5-10.2%
0-27%
1-28%
2-25%
3-22%
4-20.6%
5-20.1%
0-33%
1-34%
2-32%
3-30.9%
4-30.3%
5-30.1%
0-41.0%
1-41%
2-40.7%
3-40.3%
4-40.1%
5-40.0%
0-50.3%
1-50.3%
2-50.2%
3-50.1%
4-50.0%
5-50.0%
Every scoreline's chance from both teams' counted goals a game: Real Madrid Castilla score 1.2 and concede 1.4 (last 10, all venues, 10 games), AD Alcorcon score 1.2 and concede 1.2 (away, 5 games). Brighter squares are likelier; the predicted score is lit.
FORM · LAST 10
REAL MADRID CASTILLAWLDDWLDWLD1.30 PPG
AD ALCORCONLWLLWDDDDW1.30 PPG
THE NUMBERS
REAL MADRID CASTILLA HOMExAD ALCORCON AWAY
1.20SCORED A GAME1.701.40CONCEDED A GAME1.2040%CLEAN SHEETS30%50%FAILED TO SCORE25%7.00CORNERS A GAME4.701.89CARDS A GAME2.30
THE BANK
THE BANKER MENU
OVER 1.5 CARDS
–
718 OF 767
NO PRICE YET
The Bank expects 4.5+ cards.
Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.
THE BANK'S READ
OVER 1.5 GOALS
63%
NO · 80/83
OVER 2.5 GOALS
25%
NO · 65/78
UNDER 4.5 GOALS
98%
VERY GOOD · 85/90
REAL MADRID CASTILLA OR DRAW
85%
OKAY · 80/85
AD ALCORCON OR DRAW
59%
NO · 80/85
Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (4 and 4 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.
HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 4
REAL MADRID CASTILLA 1 · 25%DRAW 1AD ALCORCON 2 · 50%
4 of 4BOTH TEAMS SCORED
4 of 4OVER 1.5 GOALS
3 of 4OVER 2.5 GOALS
1 of 4OVER 3.5 GOALS
2022-10-02Real Madrid Castilla 1 – 4 AD Alcorcon
2023-02-05Real Madrid Castilla 1 – 1 AD Alcorcon
2024-10-20Real Madrid Castilla 1 – 2 AD Alcorcon
2025-02-22Real Madrid Castilla 2 – 1 AD Alcorcon
TRENDS
Real Madrid Castilla have scored in 70% of their games.
AD Alcorcon have scored in 80% of their games.
Real Madrid Castilla kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.
AD Alcorcon kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.
BUILT FROM
form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetshead to headleague tablecornerscards