INTERNATIONAL - UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE
14:00Sun 27 Sep
AZE
AZE
Lithuania vs Azerbaijan
CLASS A
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No firm call on the result: only goal difference speaks, for Lithuania. The call: over 2.5 goals and not both teams to score on the counts. Hard to split these two. This should be open. Lithuania receive a little over two a game in cards. Azerbaijan have won one of their last six. No main bet: nothing we back is priced at 1.09 or more.
PICKS · EVERY MARKETCOUNTED
RESULT
Lithuania or drawLEANCARD ONLY
1.30
LTU 4/10 · AZE 9/1065%
Lithuania unbeaten in 4 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Azerbaijan failed to win 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 65%
GOALS 1.5
Over 1.5 goalsCARD ONLY
1.62
LTU 7/10 · AZE 9/1080%
Lithuania: over 1.5 goals in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Azerbaijan: over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80%
GOALS 2.5
Over 2.5 goalsLEANCARD ONLYHELD · the odds board 34%
2.90
LTU 4/10 · AZE 7/1055%
Lithuania: over 2.5 goals in 4 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Azerbaijan: over 2.5 goals in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 55%
GOALS 3.5
Under 3.5 goalsLEANCARD ONLYHELD · the odds board 87%
1.15
LTU 7/10 · AZE 5/1060%
Lithuania: under 3.5 goals in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Azerbaijan: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 60%
BOTH TEAMS SCORE
Both teams score: NoLEANCARD ONLY
1.59
LTU 6/10 · AZE 5/1055%
Lithuania: not both scored in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Azerbaijan: not both scored in 5 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 55%
LITHUANIA GOALS
Lithuania under 2.5 goalsCARD ONLY
1.09
LTU 10/10 · AZE 5/1075%
Lithuania scored under 2.5 in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Azerbaijan conceded under 2.5 in 5 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75%
AZERBAIJAN GOALS
Azerbaijan under 1.5 goalsCARD ONLY
1.22
LTU 5/10 · AZE 9/1070%
Azerbaijan scored under 1.5 in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Lithuania conceded under 1.5 in 5 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 70%
FIRST HALF GOALS
First half under 1.5 goalsLEANCARD ONLY
1.25
LTU 8/10 · AZE 4/1060%
Lithuania's games: first half under 1.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Azerbaijan's games: first half under 1.5 goals in 4 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 60% · on half-time scores
CORNERS
Not enough counted games
–
Azerbaijan: 1 counted game
CARDS (YELLOW 1, RED 2)
Not enough counted games
–
Azerbaijan: 1 counted game
SHOTS (BOTH TEAMS)
Not enough counted games
–
Lithuania: 0 counted games with both sides' shots · Azerbaijan: 0 counted games with both sides' shots
Predicted score 1–1 (11%, the likeliest score that fits the read and the picks at 70% or more) · agrees with: not Over 2.5 goals (held by the odds board), no firm call: a draw or one goal, over 1.5, Lithuania under 2.5, Azerbaijan under 1.5 · could not also fit: not Under 3.5 goals (held by the odds board)
SCORELINES
Predicted score
1 – 1 11%
Lithuania goals →
Azerbaijan goals ↓
0-05%
1-08%
2-07%
3-04%
4-02%
5-00.6%
0-16%
1-111%
2-19%
3-15%
4-12%
5-10.8%
0-24%
1-27%
2-26%
3-23%
4-21%
5-20.5%
0-32%
1-33%
2-33%
3-31%
4-30.6%
5-30.2%
0-40.6%
1-41%
2-40.9%
3-40.5%
4-40.2%
5-40.1%
0-50.2%
1-50.3%
2-50.2%
3-50.1%
4-50.1%
5-50.0%
Every scoreline's chance from both teams' counted goals a game: Lithuania score 0.8 and concede 1.6 (last 10, all venues, 10 games), Azerbaijan score 1 and concede 2.6 (last 10, all venues, 10 games). Brighter squares are likelier; the predicted score is lit.
FORM · LAST 10
LITHUANIALDDDLLLLLW0.60 PPG
AZERBAIJANLDLLDLLLLW0.50 PPG
THE NUMBERS
LITHUANIA HOMExAZERBAIJAN AWAY
0.80SCORED A GAME1.001.60CONCEDED A GAME2.6020%CLEAN SHEETS10%
TRENDS
Lithuania have scored in 60% of their games.
Azerbaijan have scored in 50% of their games.
Lithuania kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.
Azerbaijan kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.
BUILT FROM
form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetsleague tablecornerscards