INTERNATIONAL - UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE
14:00Sun 27 Sep
AZE
AZE
Lithuania vs Azerbaijan
CLASS A
THE READ
Lithuania to win - 2-0 is the likeliest score. This should be open. Lithuania receive nearly two and a half a game in cards. Azerbaijan have won one of their last six. No main bet: nothing we back is priced at 1.15 or more.
Bet: Lithuania Over 0.5 Goals
WHY — 1 THING AGREE, 0 AGAINST
Angles that agree1/1 lit
AZE CLEAN 10%
Azerbaijan keep a clean sheet in only 10%
PICKS & CONFIDENCEONE PER MARKET
READY TO BET · PRICED
SECOND HALF GOALS
2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5NOT IN CODES
1.37
2 of 2 agree80%
Book 73% · Us 80% +7
Backed by: Lithuania: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Azerbaijan: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80% · on half-time scores
STRONG · WAITING FOR A PRICE
TOTAL GOALS
Over 1.5 Goals10-ODDS
no price yet
80%
Backed by: Lithuania: over 1.5 goals in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Azerbaijan: over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80%
OR HOME OVER 1.5
Lithuania or Over 1.5 Goals10-ODDS
no price yet
2 of 2 agree80%
Backed by: Lithuania: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Azerbaijan: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80%
TEAM HOME OVER 0.5
Lithuania Over 0.5 GoalsMAIN
no price yet
1 of 1 agree70%
Backed by: Lithuania scored in 5 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Azerbaijan conceded in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 70%
SCORELINES
Most likely score
2 – 0 12%
Over 1.5 80%
Lithuania goals →
Azerbaijan goals ↓
0-06%
1-011%
2-012%
3-08%
4-04%
5-02%
0-14%
1-110%
2-110%
3-17%
4-13%
5-11%
0-22%
1-24%
2-24%
3-23%
4-21%
5-20.6%
0-30.5%
1-31%
2-31%
3-30.7%
4-30.4%
5-30.2%
0-40.1%
1-40.2%
2-40.2%
3-40.1%
4-40.1%
5-40.0%
0-50.0%
1-50.0%
2-50.0%
3-50.0%
4-50.0%
5-50.0%
Every scoreline's chance from expected goals 2.07 – 0.8. Brighter squares are likelier; the most likely score is lit.
FORM · LAST 10
LITHUANIALDDDLLLLLW0.60 PPG
AZERBAIJANLDLLDLLLLW0.50 PPG
THE NUMBERS
LITHUANIA HOMExAZERBAIJAN AWAY
0.80SCORED A GAME1.001.60CONCEDED A GAME2.6020%CLEAN SHEETS10%
TRENDS
Lithuania have scored in 60% of their games.
Azerbaijan have scored in 50% of their games.
Lithuania kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.
Azerbaijan kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.
BUILT FROM
form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetsleague tablecornerscards