INTERNATIONAL - UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE
19:45Fri 25 Sep
BEL
BEL
Italy vs Belgium
CLASS A
THE BETLIVELY · NOT IN CODES
69
DOUBLE CHANCE
Class A
Double Chance: Italy or Draw
Italy v Belgium
1.35odds
74%book
-5edge
2/2angles
EDGE PICK2nd Half - Italy Over/Under: Over 0.5 · 69.2% · @1.58
Book 63% · Us 69% +6
Backed by
Italy have an edge on points per game (2.20 to 1.90); A fast start is likely: the two sides score 1.7 first-half goals a match between them; An open game is likely: the two sides average 3.9 goals a match between them.
THE READ
No firm call: the read leans Italy, but the likeliest score is 1-1. Italy have won four of the last five meetings. Belgium sit fourth, Italy third, Belgium concede about one a game. Italy average nearly two and a half a game. Italy's last six are not bad, five wins. Their recorded corner averages are similar. There will be goals in this. No main bet: nothing we back is priced at 1.15 or more.
Bet: Double Chance: Italy or Draw · Edge: 2nd Half - Italy Over/Under: Over 0.5
WHY — 2 THINGS AGREE, 0 AGAINST
Angles that agree2/2 lit
ITA 8/10
H2H 5/5
Italy saw this bet land in 8 of their last 10 games
This bet landed in 5 of the last 5 between them
PICKS & CONFIDENCEONE PER MARKET
READY TO BET · PRICED
SECOND HALF GOALS
2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5NOT IN CODES
1.20
2 of 2 agree85.1%
Book 83% · Us 85% +2
Backed by: A fast start is likely: the two sides score 1.7 first-half goals a match between them; An open game is likely: the two sides average 3.9 goals a match between them.
TEAM GOALS
Italy Multigoals: 1-3NOT IN CODES
1.29
2 of 2 agree72.9%
Book 78% · Us 73% -5 price too short
Backed by: Italy have an edge on points per game (2.20 to 1.90).
TOTAL GOALS
2-5 GoalsNOT IN CODES
1.21
2 of 2 agree72.5%
Book 83% · Us 72% -11 price too short
Backed by: An open game is likely: the two sides average 3.9 goals a match between them; the goals counts agree on over 1.5.
HALVES
2nd Half - Multigoals: 1-3
1.29
70.8%
Book 78% · Us 71% -7 price too short
Backed by: A fast start is likely: the two sides score 1.7 first-half goals a match between them; An open game is likely: the two sides average 3.9 goals a match between them.
FIRST HALF
1st Half - Double Chance: Italy or DrawNOT IN CODES
1.29
2 of 2 agree69%
Book 78% · Us 69% -9 price too short
DOUBLE CHANCE
Double Chance: Italy or DrawMAINNOT IN CODES
1.35
2 of 2 agree69%
Book 74% · Us 69% -5 price too short
Backed by: Italy have an edge on points per game (2.20 to 1.90).
WHY WE PASS
2nd Half - Italy Over/Under: Over 0.5 — no bet. Belgium saw this bet land in only 3 of their last 10 games. 1 angle argue for it and this one argues against, so it stays off the slip.
2-4 Goals — no bet. Belgium saw this bet land in only 3 of their last 10 games. 1 angle argue for it and this one argues against, so it stays off the slip.
3-5 Goals — no bet. Belgium saw this bet land in only 2 of their last 10 games. Nothing on this game argues for it, so it stays off.
SCORELINES
Most likely score
1 – 1 11%
Italy goals →
Belgium goals ↓
0-05%
1-08%
2-08%
3-05%
4-03%
5-01%
0-14%
1-111%
2-110%
3-16%
4-13%
5-11%
0-23%
1-26%
2-26%
3-24%
4-22%
5-20.7%
0-31%
1-32%
2-32%
3-32%
4-30.7%
5-30.3%
0-40.4%
1-40.7%
2-40.7%
3-40.5%
4-40.2%
5-40.1%
0-50.1%
1-50.2%
2-50.2%
3-50.1%
4-50.1%
5-50.0%
Every scoreline's chance from expected goals 1.97 – 1.19. Brighter squares are likelier; the most likely score is lit.
FORM · LAST 10
ITALYDLWWWWWWLW2.20 PPG
BELGIUMWDWDWDDWWL1.90 PPG
THE NUMBERS
ITALY HOMExBELGIUM AWAY
2.60SCORED A GAME2.901.50CONCEDED A GAME0.8062%CLEAN SHEETS38%7.83CORNERS A GAME7.331.50CARDS A GAME0.672.41xG2.240.98xG AGAINST0.57
HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 5
ITALY 4 · 80%DRAW 1BELGIUM 0 · 0%
3 of 5BOTH TEAMS SCORED
4 of 5OVER 1.5 GOALS
3 of 5OVER 2.5 GOALS
1 of 5OVER 3.5 GOALS
2016-06-13Italy 2 – 0 Belgium
2021-07-02Italy 2 – 1 Belgium
2021-10-10Italy 2 – 1 Belgium
2024-10-10Italy 2 – 2 Belgium
2024-11-14Italy 1 – 0 Belgium
TRENDS
Italy have scored in 100% of their games.
Belgium have scored in 88% of their games.
Italy kept a clean sheet in 62% of their games.
Belgium kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games.
BUILT FROM
form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetshead to headleague tablecornerscards