INTERNATIONAL - UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE
19:45Fri 25 Sep
BEL
BEL
Italy vs Belgium
CLASS A
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SubscribeTHE READ
No firm call: the read leans Italy, but the likeliest score is 1-1. Italy have won four of the last five meetings. Belgium sit fourth, Italy third, Belgium concede about one a game. Italy average nearly two and a half a game. Italy's last six are not bad, five wins. Their recorded corner averages are similar. There will be goals in this. No main bet: nothing we back is priced at 1.15 or more.
PICKS & CONFIDENCEONE PER MARKET
READY TO BET · PRICED
SECOND HALF GOALS
2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5NOT IN CODES
1.20
2 of 2 agree85.1%
Book 83% · Us 85% +2
Backed by: A fast start is likely: the two sides score 1.7 first-half goals a match between them; An open game is likely: the two sides average 3.9 goals a match between them.
TOTAL GOALS
2-5 GoalsNOT IN CODES
1.21
1 of 1 agree72.5%
Book 83% · Us 72% -11 price too short
Backed by: An open game is likely: the two sides average 3.9 goals a match between them; the goals counts agree on over 1.5.
HALVES
2nd Half - Multigoals: 1-3NOT IN CODES
1.29
70.8%
Book 78% · Us 71% -7 price too short
Backed by: A fast start is likely: the two sides score 1.7 first-half goals a match between them; An open game is likely: the two sides average 3.9 goals a match between them.
FIRST HALF
1st Half - Double Chance: Italy or DrawNOT IN CODES
1.29
1 of 1 agree69%
Book 78% · Us 69% -9 price too short
DOUBLE CHANCE
Double Chance: Italy or DrawNOT IN CODES
1.35
1 of 1 agree69%
Book 74% · Us 69% -5 price too short
Backed by: Italy have an edge on points per game (2.20 to 1.90).
WHY WE PASS
2nd Half - Italy Over/Under: Over 0.5 — no bet. Belgium saw this bet land in only 3 of their last 10 games. 1 angle argue for it and this one argues against, so it stays off the slip.
2-4 Goals — no bet. Belgium saw this bet land in only 3 of their last 10 games. Nothing on this game argues for it, so it stays off.
3-5 Goals — no bet. Belgium saw this bet land in only 2 of their last 10 games. Nothing on this game argues for it, so it stays off.
SCORELINES
Predicted score
1 – 1 8%
Italy goals →
Belgium goals ↓
0-02%
1-04%
2-04%
3-03%
4-01%
5-00.5%
0-14%
1-18%
2-18%
3-15%
4-13%
5-11%
0-24%
1-27%
2-27%
3-25%
4-22%
5-21.0%
0-32%
1-35%
2-35%
3-33%
4-32%
5-30.6%
0-41%
1-42%
2-42%
3-41%
4-40.7%
5-40.3%
0-50.4%
1-50.8%
2-50.8%
3-50.6%
4-50.3%
5-50.1%
Every scoreline's chance from both teams' counted goals a game: Italy score 2.6 and concede 0.8 (at home, 5 games), Belgium score 3 and concede 1.4 (away, 5 games). Brighter squares are likelier; the predicted score is lit.
FORM · LAST 10
ITALYDLWWWWWWLW2.20 PPG
BELGIUMWDWDWDDWWL1.90 PPG
THE NUMBERS
ITALY HOMExBELGIUM AWAY
2.60SCORED A GAME2.901.50CONCEDED A GAME0.8062%CLEAN SHEETS38%7.83CORNERS A GAME7.331.50CARDS A GAME0.672.41xG2.240.98xG AGAINST0.57
HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 5
ITALY 4 · 80%DRAW 1BELGIUM 0 · 0%
3 of 5BOTH TEAMS SCORED
4 of 5OVER 1.5 GOALS
3 of 5OVER 2.5 GOALS
1 of 5OVER 3.5 GOALS
2016-06-13Italy 2 – 0 Belgium
2021-07-02Italy 2 – 1 Belgium
2021-10-10Italy 2 – 1 Belgium
2024-10-10Italy 2 – 2 Belgium
2024-11-14Italy 1 – 0 Belgium
TRENDS
Italy have scored in 100% of their games.
Belgium have scored in 88% of their games.
Italy kept a clean sheet in 62% of their games.
Belgium kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games.
BUILT FROM
form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetshead to headleague tablecornerscards