PERU - LIGA 1
21:00Fri 18 Sep
COM
CU
Alianza Atletico vs Comerciantes Unidos
CLASS D
THE BETLIVELY · 10-ODDS · 100-ODDS ·…
78
TOTAL GOALS
Class D
Over 1.5 Goals
Alianza Atletico v Comerciantes Unidos
1.28odds
78%book
0edge
3/3angles
EDGE PICKAlianza Atletico Under 2.5 goals · 73.7% · @1.31
Book 76% · Us 74% -2 price too short
· main loses on: 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 | hedge wins on all of themTHE READ
Alianza Atletico go over 1.5 in 90% of their games. Comerciantes Unidos go over 1.5 in 70% of their games. This has landed in 80% of the last 5 between them.
Bet: Over 1.5 Goals · Edge: Alianza Atletico Under 2.5 goals · Expected goals 1.8 – 0.9
WHY — 3 THINGS AGREE, 0 AGAINST
Angles that agree3/3 lit
ALI O1.5 90%
COM O1.5 70%
H2H 80%
Alianza Atletico go over 1.5 in 90% of their games
Comerciantes Unidos go over 1.5 in 70% of their games
This has landed in 80% of the last 5 between them
PICKS & CONFIDENCEONE PER MARKET
READY TO BET · PRICED
HANDICAP
Alianza Atletico +1.52-ODDS
1.03
1 of 1 agree93.6%
Book 97% · Us 94% -3 price too short
1UP
Alianza Atletico or Draw (1UP)10-ODDS
1.12
2 of 2 agree84.5%
Book 89% · Us 84% -5 price too short
OR HOME UNDER 2.5
Alianza Atletico or Under 2.5 Goals10-ODDS
1.12
84.3%
Book 89% · Us 84% -5 price too short
TEAM GOALS
Alianza Atletico Over 0.5 Goals10-ODDS
1.15
2 of 2 agree83.1%
Book 87% · Us 83% -4 price too short
Backed by: Alianza Atletico are clearly the stronger side on points per game (1.60 to 0.90).
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
Alianza Atletico or Both Teams Score10-ODDS
1.14
2 of 2 agree83.1%
Book 88% · Us 83% -5 price too short
Backed by: Alianza Atletico are clearly the stronger side on points per game (1.60 to 0.90); Comerciantes Unidos score in 73% of their games and Alianza Atletico keep a clean sheet in only 23%.
FIRST HALF GOALS
Over 0.5 first-half goals10-ODDS
1.35
2 of 2 agree79.8%
Book 74% · Us 80% +6
TOTAL GOALS
Over 1.5 GoalsMAIN10-ODDS
1.28
3 of 3 agree78.1%
Book 78% · Us 78% 0
Backed by: An open game is likely: the two sides average 3.6 goals a match between them; the goals counts agree on over 1.5.
DRAW NO BET
Alianza Atletico (Draw No Bet)10-ODDS
1.24
1 of 1 agree76.9%
Book 81% · Us 77% -4 price too short
Backed by: Alianza Atletico are clearly the stronger side on points per game (1.60 to 0.90).
STRONG · WAITING FOR A PRICE
OR HOME OVER 1.5
Alianza Atletico or Over 1.5 Goals10-ODDS
no price yet
2 of 2 agree87.1%
Backed by: Alianza Atletico are clearly the stronger side on points per game (1.60 to 0.90); An open game is likely: the two sides average 3.6 goals a match between them; the goals counts agree on over 1.5.
CARDS
Over 2.5 Cards10-ODDS
no price yet
70.8%
Backed by: A scrappy game is likely: Alianza Atletico and Comerciantes Unidos average 3.3 cards, 2.4 cards a match.
LEANS · NOT FOR SLIPS
MATCH RESULT
Alianza Atletico to Win
1.61
1 of 1 agree56.8%
Book 62% · Us 57% -5 price too short
Backed by: Alianza Atletico are clearly the stronger side on points per game (1.60 to 0.90).
AND 1X OVER 2.5
Alianza Atletico or draw and over 2.5 goals
2.10
40.4%
Book 48% · Us 40% -8 price too short
Backed by: Alianza Atletico are clearly the stronger side on points per game (1.60 to 0.90); An open game is likely: the two sides average 3.6 goals a match between them; the goals counts agree on over 2.5.
WHY WE PASS
Alianza Atletico Win & Over 1.5 — no bet. Comerciantes Unidos saw this bet land in only 2 of their last 10 games. Nothing on this game argues for it, so it stays off.
Alianza Atletico Win & Both Teams Score — no bet. Comerciantes Unidos saw this bet land in only 2 of their last 10 games. Nothing on this game argues for it, so it stays off.
Comerciantes Unidos Under 1.5 goals — no bet. Comerciantes Unidos saw this bet land in only 3 of their last 10 games. Nothing on this game argues for it, so it stays off.
SCORELINES
Predicted score
1 – 1 9%
Over 1.5 78.1%Both score 50.1%
Alianza Atletico goals →
Comerciantes Unidos goals ↓
0-03%
1-05%
2-05%
3-03%
4-01%
5-00.5%
0-15%
1-19%
2-18%
3-15%
4-12%
5-10.8%
0-24%
1-28%
2-27%
3-24%
4-22%
5-20.7%
0-33%
1-34%
2-34%
3-32%
4-31%
5-30.4%
0-41%
1-42%
2-42%
3-41%
4-40.5%
5-40.2%
0-50.4%
1-50.6%
2-50.6%
3-50.3%
4-50.2%
5-50.1%
Every scoreline's chance from both teams' counted goals a game: Alianza Atletico score 1.9 and concede 1.9 (last 10, all venues, 10 games), Comerciantes Unidos score 1.5 and concede 1.67 (away, 6 games). Brighter squares are likelier; the predicted score is lit.
FORM · LAST 10
ALIANZA ATLETICOLLWLWDWWWL1.60 PPG
COMERCIANTES UNIDOSLDDLWLWLDL0.90 PPG
THE NUMBERS
ALIANZA ATLETICO HOMExCOMERCIANTES UNIDOS AWAY
1.90SCORED A GAME1.601.90CONCEDED A GAME1.7090%BOTH SCORED70%10%CLEAN SHEETS0%19%FAILED TO SCORE27%3.88CORNERS A GAME2.00
THE BANK
THE BANKER MENU
OVER 1.5 CARDS
–
543 OF 573
NO PRICE YET
Both sides' last 5 games point to 5.2+ cards.
Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.
THE QUALITY READ
1.78POINTS A GAME0.75+0.22GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME-0.25–SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST–2.0LAST 5: POINTS A GAME0.89LEAGUE GAMES8
Alianza Atletico: the quality side - more points a game, better form (last 5).
Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.
THE BANK'S READ
OVER 1.5 GOALS
84%
VERY GOOD · 80/83
OVER 2.5 GOALS
73%
OKAY · 65/78
UNDER 4.5 GOALS
69%
NO · 85/90
ALIANZA ATLETICO OR DRAW
92%
VERY GOOD · 80/85
COMERCIANTES UNIDOS OR DRAW
25%
NO · 80/85
Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (9 and 8 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.
ALIANZA ATLETICOxCOMERCIANTES UNIDOS
5GAMES52.40SCORED A GAME1.401.60CONCEDED A GAME1.604.0GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.0100%OVER 1.5 GOALS60%80%OVER 2.5 GOALS60%100%BOTH SCORE60%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES––CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–
Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.
HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 10
ALIANZA ATLETICO 5 · 50%DRAW 1COMERCIANTES UNIDOS 4 · 40%
4 of 10BOTH TEAMS SCORED
6 of 10OVER 1.5 GOALS
5 of 10OVER 2.5 GOALS
3 of 10OVER 3.5 GOALS
2017-07-05Alianza Atletico 2 – 0 Comerciantes Unidos
2017-10-15Alianza Atletico 3 – 2 Comerciantes Unidos
2019-08-23Alianza Atletico 1 – 3 Comerciantes Unidos
2019-11-10Alianza Atletico 4 – 1 Comerciantes Unidos
2020-12-11Alianza Atletico 1 – 2 Comerciantes Unidos
2024-04-23Alianza Atletico 0 – 0 Comerciantes Unidos
2024-09-23Alianza Atletico 1 – 0 Comerciantes Unidos
2025-06-12Alianza Atletico 3 – 0 Comerciantes Unidos
TRENDS
Alianza Atletico failed to score in 19% of their games.
Comerciantes Unidos failed to score in 27% of their games.
BUILT FROM
form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againsthead to headleague tablecornerscards