NETHERLANDS - EREDIVISIE
19:00Sat 19 Sep
EXC
ER
Ajax vs Excelsior Rotterdam
CLASS A
THE BETBANKER · 2-ODDS · 3-ODDS · 5-ODDS…
96
TOTAL GOALS
Class A
Over 1.5 Goals
Ajax v Excelsior Rotterdam
1.09odds
92%book
+4edge
5/5angles
EDGE PICKExcelsior Rotterdam Under 1.5 goals · 77.3% · @1.26
Book 79% · Us 77% -2 price too short
Backed by
· main loses on: 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 | hedge wins on all of themAjax are clearly the stronger side on points per game (2.17 to 1.67).
THE READ
Ajax go over 1.5 in 100% of their games. Excelsior Rotterdam go over 1.5 in 100% of their games. Ajax score in 100% of their games. Excelsior Rotterdam score in 100% of their games.
Bet: Over 1.5 Goals · Edge: Excelsior Rotterdam Under 1.5 goals · Expected goals 3.0 – 0.9
WHY — 5 THINGS AGREE, 0 AGAINST
Angles that agree5/5 lit
AJA O1.5 100%
EXC O1.5 100%
AJA SCORE 100%
EXC SCORE 100%
H2H 100%
Ajax go over 1.5 in 100% of their games
Excelsior Rotterdam go over 1.5 in 100% of their games
Ajax score in 100% of their games
Excelsior Rotterdam score in 100% of their games
This has landed in 100% of the last 5 between them
PICKS & CONFIDENCEONE PER MARKET
READY TO BET · PRICED
TOTAL GOALS
Over 1.5 GoalsMAIN2-ODDS
1.09
5 of 5 agree96%
Book 92% · Us 96% +4
Backed by: An open game is likely: the two sides average 3.8 goals a match between them; the goals counts agree on over 1.5.
OR HOME OVER 2.5
Ajax or Over 2.5 Goals10-ODDS
1.07
2 of 2 agree89.7%
Book 93% · Us 90% -3 price too short
Backed by: Ajax are clearly the stronger side on points per game (2.17 to 1.67); An open game is likely: the two sides average 3.8 goals a match between them; the goals counts agree on over 2.5.
DRAW NO BET
Ajax (Draw No Bet)10-ODDS
1.08
1 of 1 agree84.9%
Book 93% · Us 85% -8 price too short
Backed by: Ajax are clearly the stronger side on points per game (2.17 to 1.67).
AND 1X OVER 1.5
Ajax or Draw & Over 1.510-ODDS
1.13
1 of 1 agree83.6%
Book 88% · Us 84% -4 price too short
Backed by: Ajax are clearly the stronger side on points per game (2.17 to 1.67); An open game is likely: the two sides average 3.8 goals a match between them; the goals counts agree on over 1.5.
FIRST HALF GOALS
Over 0.5 first-half goals10-ODDS
1.16
2 of 2 agree81.1%
Book 86% · Us 81% -5 price too short
Backed by: the two sides' first halves: a first-half goal in 5 of 6 and 6 of 6 of their games with a half-time score.
MATCH RESULT
Ajax to Win10-ODDS
1.23
78.9%
Book 81% · Us 79% -2 price too short
Backed by: Ajax are clearly the stronger side on points per game (2.17 to 1.67).
AND HOME OVER 1.5
Ajax Win & Over 1.510-ODDS
1.26
73.1%
Book 79% · Us 73% -6 price too short
Backed by: Ajax are clearly the stronger side on points per game (2.17 to 1.67); An open game is likely: the two sides average 3.8 goals a match between them; the goals counts agree on over 1.5.
COMBINATIONS
Ajax Win & Over 1.510-ODDS
1.26
73.1%
Book 79% · Us 73% -6 price too short
Backed by: Ajax are clearly the stronger side on points per game (2.17 to 1.67); An open game is likely: the two sides average 3.8 goals a match between them; the goals counts agree on over 1.5.
STRONG · WAITING FOR A PRICE
OR HOME OVER 1.5
Ajax or Over 1.5 Goals2-ODDS
no price yet
2 of 2 agree96.1%
Backed by: Ajax are clearly the stronger side on points per game (2.17 to 1.67); An open game is likely: the two sides average 3.8 goals a match between them; the goals counts agree on over 1.5.
CARDS
Over 1.5 Cards10-ODDS
no price yet
86.1%
Backed by: A scrappy game is likely: Ajax and Excelsior Rotterdam average 2.3 cards, 13 fouls a match.
LEANS · NOT FOR SLIPS
TEAM GOALS
Excelsior Rotterdam Over 0.5 goals
1.61
2 of 2 agree59.3%
Book 62% · Us 59% -3 price too short
Backed by: Excelsior Rotterdam score in 100% of their games and Ajax keep a clean sheet in only 33%.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
Both Teams to Score - Yes
1.69
3 of 3 agree56.6%
Book 59% · Us 57% -2 price too short
Backed by: Excelsior Rotterdam score in 100% of their games and Ajax keep a clean sheet in only 33%; both-score counts agree.
WHY WE PASS
Ajax -1.5 — no bet. Excelsior Rotterdam saw this bet land in only 0 of their last 6 games. Nothing on this game argues for it, so it stays off.
SCORELINES
Predicted score
2 – 1 8%
Over 1.5 96%Both score 56.6%
Ajax goals →
Excelsior Rotterdam goals ↓
0-02%
1-05%
2-05%
3-04%
4-02%
5-00.9%
0-14%
1-18%
2-18%
3-16%
4-13%
5-11%
0-23%
1-27%
2-27%
3-25%
4-23%
5-21%
0-32%
1-34%
2-34%
3-33%
4-32%
5-30.7%
0-40.7%
1-42%
2-42%
3-41%
4-40.6%
5-40.3%
0-50.2%
1-50.5%
2-50.5%
3-50.4%
4-50.2%
5-50.1%
Every scoreline's chance from both teams' counted goals a game: Ajax score 3.17 and concede 1.17 (last 10, all venues, 6 games), Excelsior Rotterdam score 2.17 and concede 1.17 (last 10, all venues, 6 games). Brighter squares are likelier; the predicted score is lit.
FORM · LAST 6
AJAXWDWLWW2.17 PPG
EXCELSIOR ROTTERDAMWLWWDL1.67 PPG
THE NUMBERS
AJAX HOMExEXCELSIOR ROTTERDAM AWAY
3.17SCORED A GAME2.171.17CONCEDED A GAME1.1767%BOTH SCORED67%12%CLEAN SHEETS25%0%FAILED TO SCORE0%7.83CORNERS A GAME5.252.33CARDS A GAME1.501.92xG1.331.41xG AGAINST1.17
THE BANK
THE QUALITY READ
2.17POINTS A GAME1.67+2.00GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+1.00+7.2SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+2.82.0LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.46LEAGUE GAMES6
Ajax: the quality side - a better goal difference, more shots than it allows.
Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.
THE BANK'S READ
OVER 1.5 GOALS
99%
VERY GOOD · 80/83
OVER 2.5 GOALS
93%
VERY GOOD · 65/78
UNDER 4.5 GOALS
87%
OKAY · 85/90
AJAX OR DRAW
51%
NO · 80/85
EXCELSIOR ROTTERDAM OR DRAW
82%
OKAY · 80/85
Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (6 and 6 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.
AJAXxEXCELSIOR ROTTERDAM
5GAMES53.40SCORED A GAME1.801.40CONCEDED A GAME1.404.8GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.2100%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%100%OVER 2.5 GOALS100%80%BOTH SCORE80%3.8CARDS IN THEIR GAMES–10.0CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–
Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.
HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 10
AJAX 6 · 60%DRAW 3EXCELSIOR ROTTERDAM 1 · 10%
10 of 10BOTH TEAMS SCORED
10 of 10OVER 1.5 GOALS
10 of 10OVER 2.5 GOALS
8 of 10OVER 3.5 GOALS
2017-12-14Ajax 3 – 1 Excelsior Rotterdam
2018-05-06Ajax 2 – 1 Excelsior Rotterdam
2018-11-11Ajax 7 – 1 Excelsior Rotterdam
2019-04-13Ajax 6 – 2 Excelsior Rotterdam
2022-10-16Ajax 7 – 1 Excelsior Rotterdam
2023-01-29Ajax 4 – 1 Excelsior Rotterdam
2023-08-19Ajax 2 – 2 Excelsior Rotterdam
2024-04-24Ajax 2 – 2 Excelsior Rotterdam
TEAM NEWS
AJAX
Out: S. Adingra (Foot Injury), D. Blind (Injury), A. Bouwman (Injury), S. Adingra (Foot Injury), D. Blind (Injury), A. Bouwman (Injury)EXCELSIOR ROTTERDAM
Out: N. Naujoks (Inactive), N. Naujoks (Inactive)TRENDS
Ajax have scored in 100% of their games.
Excelsior Rotterdam have scored in 100% of their games.
Ajax kept a clean sheet in 12% of their games.
Excelsior Rotterdam kept a clean sheet in 25% of their games.
BUILT FROM
form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetshead to headleague tableteam newscornerscards