ARGENTINA - PRIMERA LPF
21:00Fri 11 Sep
VEL
VS
Newell's Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield
CLASS B
THE BETLIVELY · 10-ODDS · 100-ODDS ·…
79
TOTAL GOALS
Class B
Over 1.5 Goals
Newell's Old Boys v Velez Sarsfield
1.53odds
65%book
+14edge
3/3angles
THE READ
Newell's Old Boys score in 88% of their games. Velez Sarsfield score in 88% of their games. This has landed in 84% of the last 9 between them.
Bet: Over 1.5 Goals · Expected goals 1.0 – 1.1
WHY — 3 THINGS AGREE, 0 AGAINST
Angles that agree3/3 lit
NEW SCORE 88%
VEL SCORE 88%
H2H 84%
Newell's Old Boys score in 88% of their games
Velez Sarsfield score in 88% of their games
This has landed in 84% of the last 9 between them
PICKS & CONFIDENCEONE PER MARKET
READY TO BET · PRICED
HANDICAP
Velez Sarsfield +1.510-ODDS
1.10
2 of 2 agree87.2%
Book 91% · Us 87% -4 price too short
OR AWAY UNDER 2.5
Velez Sarsfield or Under 2.5 Goals10-ODDS
1.18
1 of 1 agree80.9%
Book 85% · Us 81% -4 price too short
DOUBLE CHANCE
Newell's Old Boys or Velez Sarsfield10-ODDS
1.38
1 of 1 agree79.7%
Book 72% · Us 80% +8
OR HOME UNDER 2.5
Newell's Old Boys or Under 2.5 Goals10-ODDS
1.19
1 of 1 agree79.3%
Book 84% · Us 79% -5 price too short
TOTAL GOALS
Over 1.5 GoalsMAIN10-ODDS
1.53
3 of 3 agree78.6%
Book 65% · Us 79% +14
Backed by: the goals counts agree on over 1.5.
1UP
Velez Sarsfield or Draw (1UP)10-ODDS
1.30
1 of 1 agree71.2%
Book 77% · Us 71% -6 price too short
OR DRAW UNDER 2.5
Draw or Under 2.5 Goals10-ODDS
1.35
1 of 1 agree68.8%
Book 74% · Us 69% -5 price too short
TEAM GOALS
Velez Sarsfield Over 0.5 Goals10-ODDS
1.44
2 of 2 agree66.4%
Book 69% · Us 66% -3 price too short
STRONG · WAITING FOR A PRICE
CORNERS
Over 6.5 Corners10-ODDS
no price yet
83.2%
CARDS
Over 2.5 Cards10-ODDS
no price yet
82.4%
OR AWAY OVER 1.5
Velez Sarsfield or Over 1.5 Goals10-ODDS
no price yet
2 of 2 agree75.6%
Backed by: the goals counts agree on over 1.5.
OR HOME OVER 1.5
Newell's Old Boys or Over 1.5 Goals10-ODDS
no price yet
1 of 1 agree74.9%
Backed by: the goals counts agree on over 1.5.
WHY WE PASS
Velez Sarsfield or Draw — no bet. Velez Sarsfield have won 1 of their last 6. 1 angle argue for it and this one argues against, so it stays off the slip.
SCORELINES
Predicted score
1 – 1 13%
Over 1.5 78.6%
Newell's Old Boys goals →
Velez Sarsfield goals ↓
0-011%
1-012%
2-07%
3-02%
4-00.7%
5-00.1%
0-112%
1-113%
2-17%
3-13%
4-10.7%
5-10.2%
0-27%
1-27%
2-24%
3-21%
4-20.4%
5-20.1%
0-32%
1-33%
2-31%
3-30.5%
4-30.1%
5-30.0%
0-40.7%
1-40.7%
2-40.4%
3-40.1%
4-40.0%
5-40.0%
0-50.1%
1-50.2%
2-50.1%
3-50.0%
4-50.0%
5-50.0%
Every scoreline's chance from both teams' counted goals a game: Newell's Old Boys score 1.33 and concede 1 (last 10, all venues, 6 games), Velez Sarsfield score 1.17 and concede 0.83 (last 10, all venues, 6 games). Brighter squares are likelier; the predicted score is lit.
FORM · LAST 6
NEWELL'S OLD BOYSDDWWLD1.50 PPG
VELEZ SARSFIELDWDDDDW1.67 PPG
THE NUMBERS
NEWELL'S OLD BOYS HOMExVELEZ SARSFIELD AWAY
1.00SCORED A GAME1.201.40CONCEDED A GAME0.8021%CLEAN SHEETS40%4.29CORNERS A GAME4.502.58CARDS A GAME2.360.65xG0.871.18xG AGAINST1.44
THE BANK
THE BANKER MENU
OVER 1.5 CARDS
–
543 OF 573
NO PRICE YET
Both sides' last 5 games point to 5.2+ cards.
Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.
THE QUALITY READ
1.20POINTS A GAME2.00+0.20GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.50–SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST–1.2LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.85LEAGUE GAMES6
Velez Sarsfield: the quality side - more points a game.
Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.
THE BANK'S READ
OVER 1.5 GOALS
66%
NO · 80/83
OVER 2.5 GOALS
16%
NO · 65/78
UNDER 4.5 GOALS
99%
VERY GOOD · 85/90
NEWELL'S OLD BOYS OR DRAW
95%
VERY GOOD · 80/85
VELEZ SARSFIELD OR DRAW
67%
NO · 80/85
Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (5 and 6 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.
NEWELL'S OLD BOYSxVELEZ SARSFIELD
5GAMES51.20SCORED A GAME1.001.00CONCEDED A GAME0.602.2GOALS IN THEIR GAMES1.680%OVER 1.5 GOALS60%40%OVER 2.5 GOALS0%60%BOTH SCORE60%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES––CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–
Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.
HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 9
NEWELL'S OLD BOYS 2 · 22%DRAW 1VELEZ SARSFIELD 6 · 67%
3 of 9BOTH TEAMS SCORED
4 of 9OVER 1.5 GOALS
2 of 9OVER 2.5 GOALS
1 of 9OVER 3.5 GOALS
2026-05-04Newell's Old Boys 1 – 1 Velez Sarsfield
2024-05-21Newell's Old Boys 0 – 1 Velez Sarsfield
2023-02-03Newell's Old Boys 1 – 0 Velez Sarsfield
2022-09-03Newell's Old Boys 1 – 0 Velez Sarsfield
2021-10-09Newell's Old Boys 1 – 2 Velez Sarsfield
2021-02-13Newell's Old Boys 0 – 1 Velez Sarsfield
2021-01-03Newell's Old Boys 0 – 1 Velez Sarsfield
2019-08-24Newell's Old Boys 1 – 3 Velez Sarsfield
TRENDS
Newell's Old Boys have scored in 88% of their games.
Velez Sarsfield have scored in 88% of their games.
Newell's Old Boys kept a clean sheet in 21% of their games.
Velez Sarsfield kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.
BUILT FROM
form · last gamesxG & xGAclean sheetshead to headleague tablecornerscards