Nairea vs AL Sahel SC
Match details. Second Division. Kick-off is Fri 13 Nov, 12:55 Lagos time.
Form. Nairea have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D L W. AL Sahel SC have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W D.
The numbers. Nairea score 1.5 and concede 1.7 a game in their last six at home, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. AL Sahel SC score 1.9 and concede 0.7 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 31% against the records' 57%. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 1.5 goals at 76%, over 2.5 at 45%, under 4.5 at 79%.
The read. No firm call: AL Sahel SC are the better side, but not at this price. AL Sahel SC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour AL Sahel SC.
The bets. No best bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: Nairea 1-1 AL Sahel SC (13% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (AL Sahel SC the favourite), goals in between.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).