THE READ
Match details. CONCACAF Nations League, Play-In Final. Kick-off is Fri 13 Nov, 00:00 Lagos time. It is played at Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, Antigua.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Antigua and Barbuda have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L L. Trinidad and Tobago have won one, drawn five and lost four of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L L D.
The numbers. Antigua and Barbuda score 1.6 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Antigua and Barbuda average 12.3 shots (4.9 on target), 6.4 corners and 2.5 cards a game, with 54% of the ball. Trinidad and Tobago score 1.4 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Trinidad and Tobago average 10.9 shots (3.9 on target), 5.1 corners and 1.9 cards a game, with 47% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last two meetings Antigua and Barbuda have won one, drawn none and lost one. None of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in none. The last time they met, on 12 Oct 2014, it finished Antigua and Barbuda 0-1 Trinidad and Tobago.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 72% against the records' 48%.
The read. No firm call: Trinidad and Tobago are the better side, but not at this price. A mixed game. Their goals for and against make Trinidad and Tobago the likelier winners; Trinidad and Tobago are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Trinidad and Tobago.
The bets. Best bet: Antigua and Barbuda Under 1.5 Goals at 1.22, rated 86% (Antigua and Barbuda scored under 1.5 in 3 of 5 at home; Trinidad and Tobago conceded under 1.5 in 3 of 5 away). Full cover: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.18. Whenever the best bet loses, this one wins. Predicted score: Antigua and Barbuda 0-2 Trinidad and Tobago (14% chance).
The agreed story. Trinidad and Tobago or the draw, a mixed game.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Antigua and Barbuda in their last internationals: won 3-2 v Aruba, won 5-0 v Anguilla, lost 0-1 at Aruba. Trinidad and Tobago in their last internationals: lost 1-2 v Dominican Republic, lost 2-3 at Haiti (rated above them). Too few internationals to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
PICKSONE LIST
RESULT
1st Half - Double Chance: Draw or Trinidad and TobagoPAGE ONLY
1.12
TRI 4 of 5 (80%) · ATG 3 of 5 (60%)76.1%
Trinidad and Tobago: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · Antigua and Barbuda: the bet landed in 3 of 5 at home · both last 10: 86% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
Trinidad and Tobago or Under 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
1.09
TRI 3 of 5 (60%) · ATG 3 of 5 (60%)74.1%
Trinidad and Tobago: the bet landed in 3 of 5 away · Antigua and Barbuda: the bet landed in 3 of 5 at home · both last 10: 72% · each game weighed by who it was against
Antigua and Barbuda (2:0 handicap)LEANPAGE ONLY
1.76
ATG 4 of 5 (80%) · TRI 4 of 5 (80%)67.5%
Antigua and Barbuda: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Trinidad and Tobago: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 63% · each game weighed by who it was against
Trinidad and Tobago or Over 2.5 GoalsHELD · the odds board 86%
1.16
TRI 3 of 5 (60%) · ATG 4 of 5 (80%)58.1%
Trinidad and Tobago: the bet landed in 3 of 5 away · Antigua and Barbuda: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 77% · each game weighed by who it was against
Draw or Over 2.5 GoalsHELD · the odds board 78%
1.28
ATG 4 of 5 (80%) · TRI 4 of 5 (80%)50.8%
Antigua and Barbuda: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Trinidad and Tobago: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 71% · each game weighed by who it was against
Trinidad and Tobago 1UPLEANHELD · the odds board 83%
1.20
TRI 4 of 5 (80%) · ATG 4 of 5 (80%)47.1%
Trinidad and Tobago scored first 3 of last 5, led in 4 · led in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Antigua and Barbuda trailed in 1 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · each game weighed by who it was against
GOALS
Over 1.5 GoalsFULL COVERHELD · the odds board 85%
1.18
ATG 3 of 5 (60%) · TRI 4 of 5 (80%)57.6%
Antigua and Barbuda: over 1.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home · Trinidad and Tobago: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 84% · each game weighed by who it was against
Over 2.5 GoalsLEANHELD · the odds board 64%
1.56
ATG 3 of 5 (60%) · TRI 3 of 5 (60%)32.7%
Antigua and Barbuda: over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home · Trinidad and Tobago: over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 53% · each game weighed by who it was against
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA GOALS
Antigua and Barbuda Under 1.5 goalsMAININ CODES
1.22
ATG 3 of 5 (60%) · TRI 3 of 5 (60%)87.7%
Antigua and Barbuda scored under 1.5 in 3 of 5 at home · Trinidad and Tobago conceded under 1.5 in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 72% · each game weighed by who it was against
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO GOALS
Trinidad and Tobago Under 3.5 goalsIN CODES
1.20
TRI 5 of 5 (100%) · ATG 4 of 5 (80%)85%
Trinidad and Tobago scored under 3.5 in 5 of 5 away · Antigua and Barbuda conceded under 3.5 in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 81% · each game weighed by who it was against
Trinidad and Tobago Under 2.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.59
TRI 4 of 5 (80%) · ATG 4 of 5 (80%)48.6%
Trinidad and Tobago scored under 2.5 in 4 of 5 away · Antigua and Barbuda conceded under 2.5 in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 77% · each game weighed by who it was against
Trinidad and Tobago Over 1.5 goalsLEANHELD · the odds board 70%
1.42
TRI 2 of 5 (40%) · ATG 2 of 5 (40%)42.5%
Trinidad and Tobago scored over 1.5 in 2 of 5 away · Antigua and Barbuda conceded over 1.5 in 2 of 5 at home · both last 10: 56% · each game weighed by who it was against
HALVES
2nd Half - Trinidad and Tobago Over/Under: Under 2.5PAGE ONLY
1.11
TRI 5 of 5 (100%) · ATG 5 of 5 (100%)94.5%
Trinidad and Tobago: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · Antigua and Barbuda: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · both last 10: 100% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
Under 2.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY
1.16
ATG 2 of 5 (40%) · TRI 5 of 5 (100%)84.5%
Antigua and Barbuda: the bet landed in 2 of 5 at home · Trinidad and Tobago: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 78% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY
1.17
ATG 2 of 5 (40%) · TRI 5 of 5 (100%)81.7%
Antigua and Barbuda: the bet landed in 2 of 5 at home · Trinidad and Tobago: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 91% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
1st Half Antigua and Barbuda to Win to Nil: NoPAGE ONLY
1.09
ATG 4 of 5 (80%) · TRI 4 of 5 (80%)80.7%
Antigua and Barbuda: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Trinidad and Tobago: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 89% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
Excluded Number of Goals - First Half: 2PAGE ONLY
1.26
ATG 5 of 5 (100%) · TRI 3 of 5 (60%)76.4%
Antigua and Barbuda: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · Trinidad and Tobago: the bet landed in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 86% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
1st Half - GG/NG: NoPAGE ONLY
1.22
ATG 4 of 5 (80%) · TRI 4 of 5 (80%)76.2%
Antigua and Barbuda: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Trinidad and Tobago: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 87% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY
1.26
ATG 4 of 5 (80%) · TRI 3 of 5 (60%)74.1%
Antigua and Barbuda: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Trinidad and Tobago: the bet landed in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 65% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
2nd Half - Trinidad and Tobago Over/Under: Over 0.5LEANPAGE ONLY
1.33
TRI 4 of 5 (80%) · ATG 2 of 5 (40%)57.3%
Trinidad and Tobago: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · Antigua and Barbuda: the bet landed in 2 of 5 at home · both last 10: 75% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
CORNERS
Over 8.5 CornersPAGE ONLY
no price yet
ATG 7 of 8 (88%) · TRI 6 of 9 (67%)83.3%
Antigua and Barbuda's games: over 8.5 corners in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Trinidad and Tobago's games: over 8.5 corners in 6 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 83% · each game weighed by who it was against
CARDS
no price yet
ATG 7 of 8 (88%) · TRI 8 of 8 (100%)97%
Antigua and Barbuda's games: over 1.5 cards in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Trinidad and Tobago's games: over 1.5 cards in 8 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 100% · each game weighed by who it was against
OTHER
Any Team To Score 3 or More Goals in a Row: NoIN CODES
1.44
ATG 3 of 5 (60%) · TRI 3 of 5 (60%)87.2%
Antigua and Barbuda scored first 3 of last 5, no side scored 3 in a row in 3 · no side scored 3 in a row in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Trinidad and Tobago no side scored 3 in a row in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · each game weighed by who it was against
Any Team to lead by 3 Goals at any time: NoIN CODES
1.37
ATG 3 of 5 (60%) · TRI 3 of 5 (60%)87.2%
Antigua and Barbuda scored first 3 of last 5, no side led by 3 in 3 · no side led by 3 in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Trinidad and Tobago no side led by 3 in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · each game weighed by who it was against
1.12
ATG 4 of 5 (80%) · TRI 4 of 5 (80%)83.6%
Antigua and Barbuda: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Trinidad and Tobago: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 83% · each game weighed by who it was against
Left off the list: Trinidad and Tobago To Score 2 or More Goals in a Row: No (the numbers (45%) and the records (75%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); Antigua and Barbuda To Score 2 or More Goals in a Row: No (the numbers (91%) and the records (50%) are 40 points apart, and nothing settles it); Trinidad and Tobago To Score 3 or More Goals in a Row: No (the numbers (73%) and the records (100%) are 27 points apart, and nothing settles it); Trinidad and Tobago to lead by 2 Goals at any time: No (the numbers (50%) and the records (100%) are 50 points apart, and nothing settles it); Trinidad and Tobago to lead by 3 Goals at any time: No (the numbers (75%) and the records (100%) are 25 points apart, and nothing settles it); Antigua and Barbuda or Draw (1UP) (the numbers (38%) and the records (76%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it)