THE READ
Match details. CONCACAF Nations League, Play-In Final. Kick-off is Thu 12 Nov, 23:00 Lagos time. It is played at Trinidad Stadium, Oranjestad.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Aruba have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W W. Martinique have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L L L.
The numbers. Aruba score two and concede 1.7 a game in their last six at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Aruba average 15.0 shots (5.1 on target), 4.8 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 67% of the ball. Martinique score 0.8 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Martinique average 11.5 shots (4.0 on target), 4.3 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 46% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Martinique the likelier winners, but Martinique are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Aruba.
The read. No side to back. A draw is live. A mixed game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Aruba 0-1 Martinique (12% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Martinique the favourite), a mixed game.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Aruba in their last internationals: lost 2-3 at Antigua and Barbuda, won 3-2 v Anguilla, won 1-0 v Antigua and Barbuda. Martinique in their last internationals: won 2-1 v Honduras (rated above them), lost 1-2 at Suriname (rated above them), lost 1-3 at El Salvador.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
PICKSONE LIST
RESULT
Aruba (2:0 handicap)LEANPAGE ONLY
1.81
ARU 5 of 6 (83%) · MTQ 5 of 5 (100%)69%
Aruba: the bet landed in 5 of 6 at home · Martinique: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 74% · each game weighed by who it was against
2nd Half - Double Chance: Aruba or MartiniqueLEANPAGE ONLY
1.32
ARU 5 of 6 (83%) · MTQ 5 of 5 (100%)65.5%
Aruba: the bet landed in 5 of 6 at home · Martinique: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 78% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
Martinique or Over 2.5 GoalsHELD · the odds board 87%
1.15
MTQ 4 of 5 (80%) · ARU 5 of 6 (83%)64.5%
Martinique: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · Aruba: the bet landed in 5 of 6 at home · both last 10: 74% · each game weighed by who it was against
Double Chance: Aruba or MartiniqueHELD · the odds board 87%
1.15
ARU 6 of 6 (100%) · MTQ 5 of 5 (100%)59.3%
Aruba: the bet landed in 6 of 6 at home · Martinique: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 82% · each game weighed by who it was against
Draw or Over 2.5 GoalsHELD · the odds board 79%
1.27
ARU 4 of 6 (67%) · MTQ 3 of 5 (60%)58.4%
Aruba: the bet landed in 4 of 6 at home · Martinique: the bet landed in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 80% · each game weighed by who it was against
Aruba or Under 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY
2.05
ARU 5 of 6 (83%) · MTQ 5 of 5 (100%)51%
Aruba: the bet landed in 5 of 6 at home · Martinique: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 62% · each game weighed by who it was against
Aruba or Both Teams ScoreLEANPAGE ONLY
1.62
ARU 4 of 6 (67%) · MTQ 4 of 5 (80%)47%
Aruba: the bet landed in 4 of 6 at home · Martinique: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 70% · each game weighed by who it was against
GOALS
Over 1.5 GoalsHELD · the odds board 85%
1.17
ARU 4 of 6 (67%) · MTQ 3 of 5 (60%)57.2%
Aruba: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 6 at home · Martinique: over 1.5 goals in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 76% · each game weighed by who it was against
ARUBA GOALS
Aruba Over 0.5 goalsLEANHELD · the odds board 61%
1.65
ARU 4 of 6 (67%) · MTQ 4 of 5 (80%)36.4%
Aruba scored in 4 of 6 at home · Martinique conceded in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 70% · each game weighed by who it was against
MARTINIQUE GOALS
Martinique Under 3.5 goalsPAGE ONLY
1.22
MTQ 5 of 5 (100%) · ARU 5 of 6 (83%)87.7%
Martinique scored under 3.5 in 5 of 5 away · Aruba conceded under 3.5 in 5 of 6 at home · both last 10: 74% · each game weighed by who it was against
Martinique Under 2.5 goalsPAGE ONLY
1.63
MTQ 5 of 5 (100%) · ARU 5 of 6 (83%)70.7%
Martinique scored under 2.5 in 5 of 5 away · Aruba conceded under 2.5 in 5 of 6 at home · both last 10: 72% · each game weighed by who it was against
HALVES
Under 2.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY
1.17
ARU 5 of 6 (83%) · MTQ 4 of 5 (80%)89.5%
Aruba: the bet landed in 5 of 6 at home · Martinique: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 70% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY
1.16
ARU 6 of 6 (100%) · MTQ 5 of 5 (100%)80.8%
Aruba: the bet landed in 6 of 6 at home · Martinique: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 92% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
1st Half - GG/NG: NoPAGE ONLY
1.22
ARU 5 of 6 (83%) · MTQ 5 of 5 (100%)77.5%
Aruba: the bet landed in 5 of 6 at home · Martinique: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 77% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY
1.25
ARU 4 of 6 (67%) · MTQ 2 of 5 (40%)74.1%
Aruba: the bet landed in 4 of 6 at home · Martinique: the bet landed in 2 of 5 away · both last 10: 70% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
2nd Half - Martinique Over/Under: Over 0.5LEANPAGE ONLY
1.31
MTQ 4 of 5 (80%) · ARU 5 of 6 (83%)59.3%
Martinique: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · Aruba: the bet landed in 5 of 6 at home · both last 10: 79% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
CORNERS
Over 3.5 CornersPAGE ONLY
no price yet
ARU 5 of 5 (100%) · MTQ 6 of 6 (100%)82%
Aruba's games: over 3.5 corners in 5 of 5 at home · Martinique's games: over 3.5 corners in 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 100% · each game weighed by who it was against
OTHER
1.12
ARU 5 of 6 (83%) · MTQ 5 of 5 (100%)97%
Aruba: the bet landed in 5 of 6 at home · Martinique: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 93% · each game weighed by who it was against
Any Team To Score 2 or More Goals in a Row: YesIN CODES
1.41
ARU 4 of 5 (80%) · MTQ 5 of 6 (83%)73.3%
Aruba scored first 4 of last 5, a side scored 2 in a row in 4 · a side scored 2 in a row in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Martinique a side scored 2 in a row in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · each game weighed by who it was against
Any Team to lead by 2 Goals at any time: YesLEANPAGE ONLY
1.55
ARU 3 of 5 (60%) · MTQ 4 of 6 (67%)63.4%
Aruba scored first 4 of last 5, a side led by 2 in 3 · a side led by 2 in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Martinique a side led by 2 in 2 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · each game weighed by who it was against
Left off the list: Martinique To Score 2 or More Goals in a Row: No (the numbers (50%) and the records (81%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); Martinique to lead by 1 Goal at any time: No (the numbers (26%) and the records (81%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); Martinique to lead by 2 Goals at any time: No (the numbers (56%) and the records (96%) are 40 points apart, and nothing settles it); Martinique To Score 3 or More Goals in a Row: No (the numbers (77%) and the records (100%) are 23 points apart, and nothing settles it); Martinique to lead by 3 Goals at any time: No (the numbers (79%) and the records (100%) are 21 points apart, and nothing settles it); Aruba or Over 2.5 Goals (the numbers (57%) and the records (85%) are 28 points apart, and nothing settles it); Aruba 1UP (the numbers (30%) and the records (80%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); Aruba to lead by 1 Goal at any time: Yes (the numbers (30%) and the records (80%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it)