Match details. Coupe de France, 1/128-finals. Kick-off is Thu 12 Nov, 19:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Chambery SF have won one, drawn four and lost five of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D D D. Grenoble Foot have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L L L.
The numbers. Chambery SF score 1.2 and concede 1.7 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Grenoble Foot score one and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Grenoble Foot average 10.6 shots (3.2 on target), 4.0 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 42% of the ball.
Head to head. The last time they met, on 9 Dec 2023, it finished Chambery SF 1-1 Grenoble Foot.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 1.5 goals at 82%, over 2.5 at 60%, under 4.5 at 83%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Chambery SF 1-2 Grenoble Foot (8% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Grenoble Foot the favourite), an open game.
Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Too few cup games on either side to read.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).