Bonaire vs Cuba
Match details. CONCACAF Nations League, League B - 3. Kick-off is Thu 12 Nov, 21:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio La Polar, Havana.
Form. Bonaire have won two, drawn one and lost seven of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L L L. Cuba have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D W W L.
The numbers. Bonaire score 0.8 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Bonaire average 8.0 shots (4.2 on target), 3.0 corners and 2.3 cards a game, with 42% of the ball. Cuba score 1.6 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Cuba average 15.5 shots (5.7 on target), 5.3 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 57% of the ball.
Head to head. The last time they met, on 28 Sep 2026, it finished Bonaire 0-2 Cuba: Bonaire had 8 shots to 26, 33% of the ball, five yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 93% against the records' 57%.
The read. No firm call: Cuba are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Cuba the likelier winners; Cuba are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Cuba.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Bonaire 0-1 Cuba (15% chance).
The agreed story. Cuba or the draw, an open game.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Bonaire in their last internationals: won 4-1 at Grenada, lost 2-3 v Grenada. Cuba in their last internationals: drew 3-3 at Saint Kitts and Nevis. Too few internationals to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).