Match details. National 1. Kick-off is Wed 11 Nov, 17:00 Lagos time.
Form. EFC Frejus Saint-Raphael have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W L L. Estac Troyes 2 have won five, drawn one and lost three of their last nine, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L W.
The numbers. EFC Frejus Saint-Raphael score 2.4 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with four clean sheets. EFC Frejus Saint-Raphael average 1.5 corners and 1.5 cards a game. Estac Troyes 2 score 1.2 and concede 1.4 a game over their last nine, with three clean sheets and four games without a goal.
The case against. Estac Troyes 2's record still gives them 41% to win.
The read. EFC Frejus Saint-Raphael to win. An open game. EFC Frejus Saint-Raphael are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour EFC Frejus Saint-Raphael. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 58%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: EFC Frejus Saint-Raphael 2-1 Estac Troyes 2 (9% chance).
The agreed story. EFC Frejus Saint-Raphael or the draw, an open game.
The league run. EFC Frejus Saint-Raphael: up and down in the league (D W W L L).
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).