Match details. Pernambucano, Semi-finals. Kick-off is Tue 10 Nov, 19:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. America PE are 1st on 11 points after 5 games, -2 points clear of Facilnet. Serrano PE are 4th on 5 points after 5 games. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. America PE have won seven, drawn three and lost none of their last ten, 2.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W W D. Serrano PE have won one, drawn two and lost two of their last five league games, 1.0 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W D D L L.
The numbers. America PE score 1.7 and concede 0.5 a game in their last six at home, with three clean sheets. America PE average 0.7 corners and 1.0 cards a game. Serrano PE score 1.2 and concede 1.4 a game over their last five, with one clean sheet.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 75% against the records' 48%.
The read. No firm call: America PE are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make America PE the likelier winners; America PE are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour America PE. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 38%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: America PE 1-1 Serrano PE (13% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (America PE the favourite), a tight game.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
PICKSONE LIST
RESULT
Serrano PE (0:2 handicap)HELD · the odds board 55%
1.82
SER 5 of 5 (100%) · AME 5 of 6 (83%)86.1%
Serrano PE: the bet landed in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · America PE: the bet landed in 5 of 6 at home · both last 10: 75% · America PE: only games against sides at Serrano PE's level
America PE or Under 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
AME 6 of 6 (100%) · SER 4 of 5 (80%)72%
America PE: the bet landed in 6 of 6 at home · Serrano PE: the bet landed in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90% · America PE: only games against sides at Serrano PE's level
America PE or Both Teams ScorePAGE ONLY
no price yet
AME 5 of 6 (83%) · SER 4 of 5 (80%)64.8%
America PE: the bet landed in 5 of 6 at home · Serrano PE: the bet landed in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85% · America PE: only games against sides at Serrano PE's level
Draw or Under 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
AME 4 of 6 (67%) · SER 4 of 5 (80%)54.2%
America PE: the bet landed in 4 of 6 at home · Serrano PE: the bet landed in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 70% · America PE: only games against sides at Serrano PE's level
Draw or Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY
no price yet
AME 5 of 6 (83%) · SER 3 of 5 (60%)51.4%
America PE: the bet landed in 5 of 6 at home · Serrano PE: the bet landed in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 65% · America PE: only games against sides at Serrano PE's level
America PE or Draw & Over 1.5LEANPAGE ONLY
no price yet
AME 4 of 6 (67%) · SER 3 of 5 (60%)37.2%
America PE: the bet landed in 4 of 6 at home · Serrano PE: the bet landed in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 70% · America PE: only games against sides at Serrano PE's level
GOALS
Under 5.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
AME 6 of 6 (100%) · SER 5 of 5 (100%)97%
America PE: under 5.5 goals in 6 of 6 at home · Serrano PE: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90% · America PE: only games against sides at Serrano PE's level
Under 4.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
AME 5 of 6 (83%) · SER 4 of 5 (80%)80.4%
America PE: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 6 at home · Serrano PE: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · America PE: only games against sides at Serrano PE's level
Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
AME 5 of 6 (83%) · SER 5 of 5 (100%)74.8%
America PE: over 0.5 goals in 5 of 6 at home · Serrano PE: over 0.5 goals in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 95% · America PE: only games against sides at Serrano PE's level
Under 3.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.36
AME 5 of 6 (83%) · SER 3 of 5 (60%)70.4%
America PE: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 6 at home · Serrano PE: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 65% · America PE: only games against sides at Serrano PE's level
Over 1.5 GoalsLEANHELD · the odds board 81%
1.24
AME 4 of 6 (67%) · SER 3 of 5 (60%)47.6%
America PE: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 6 at home · Serrano PE: over 1.5 goals in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 70% · America PE: only games against sides at Serrano PE's level
AMERICA PE GOALS
America PE Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
AME 5 of 6 (83%) · SER 4 of 5 (80%)64.8%
America PE scored in 5 of 6 at home · Serrano PE conceded in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85% · America PE: only games against sides at Serrano PE's level
OTHER
Serrano PE Clean Sheet: NoHELD · the odds board 92%
1.09
SER 4 of 5 (80%) · AME 5 of 6 (83%)64.8%
Serrano PE: the bet landed in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · America PE: the bet landed in 5 of 6 at home · both last 10: 85% · America PE: only games against sides at Serrano PE's level
SCORELINES
Predicted score
Predicted score 1–113%
America PE goals →
Serrano PE goals ↓
0-09%
1-012%
2-010%
3-05%
4-02%
5-00.6%
0-17%
1-113%
2-19%
3-15%
4-12%
5-10.5%
0-24%
1-26%
2-24%
3-22%
4-20.8%
5-20.2%
0-31%
1-32%
2-31%
3-30.7%
4-30.3%
5-30.1%
0-40.3%
1-40.4%
2-40.3%
3-40.2%
4-40.1%
5-40.0%
0-50.1%
1-50.1%
2-50.1%
3-50.0%
4-50.0%
5-50.0%
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).
FORM · LAST 10
AMERICA PEWWWWDDWWWD2.40 PPG
SERRANO PELLDDW1.00 PPG
THE NUMBERS
AMERICA PE HOMExSERRANO PE AWAY
2.50SCORED A GAME1.200.50CONCEDED A GAME1.4060%CLEAN SHEETS20%20%FAILED TO SCORE20%
TRENDS
America PE have scored in 90% of their games.
Serrano PE have scored in 80% of their games.
America PE kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games.
Serrano PE kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.
BUILT FROM
form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetsleague tablecornerscards