THE READ
Match details. Africa Cup of Nations Qualification, Group Stage - 3. Kick-off is Fri 13 Nov, 14:00 Lagos time. It is played at Levy Mwanawasa Stadium, Ndola.
What's at stake. Zambia are 2nd on 3 points after 2 games, 1 point behind Algeria, level on points with Togo. A win would take them above Algeria. Burundi are 4th on 1 point after 2 games, 2 points behind Togo. A win would take them above Togo.
Form. Zambia have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L D D. In this competition Zambia have gone W L. Burundi have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W W L.
The numbers. Zambia score 0.3 and concede 1.2 a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets and five games without a goal. Zambia average 9.5 shots (2.0 on target), 4.8 corners and 1.9 cards a game, with 47% of the ball. Burundi score 0.8 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and four games without a goal. Burundi average 5.7 shots (1.8 on target), 3.0 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 43% of the ball.
Head to head. The last time they met, on 1 Dec 2013, it finished Zambia 1-0 Burundi.
The case against. Burundi's record still gives them 23% to win.
The read. Zambia to win. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Zambia the likelier winners; both teams' records favour Zambia. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 1.5 goals at 34%, over 2.5 at 6%, under 4.5 at 100%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.18, rated 81% (Zambia: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 5; Burundi: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). The safer one: Burundi Under 1.5 Goals at 1.14 (83%). Full cover: Over 0.5 Goals at 1.09. Whenever the best bet loses, this one wins. Predicted score: Zambia 1-0 Burundi (15% chance).
The agreed story. Zambia or the draw, a tight game.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Zambia in their last internationals: won 2-0 v Togo, lost 1-3 at Algeria (rated above them). Burundi in their last internationals: drew 2-2 v Algeria (rated above them), lost 0-1 at Togo. Too few internationals to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
PICKSONE LIST
RESULT
Double Chance: Zambia or DrawIN CODES
1.17
ZAM 3 of 5 (60%) · BDI 4 of 5 (80%)83.9%
Zambia unbeaten in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Burundi failed to win 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 77% · Zambia: only games against sides at Burundi's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Zambia or draw and under 3.5 goalsIN CODES
1.39
ZAM 3 of 5 (60%) · BDI 4 of 5 (80%)67.6%
Zambia: the bet landed in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Burundi: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 68% · Zambia: only games against sides at Burundi's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Zambia or Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.42
ZAM 2 of 5 (40%) · BDI 5 of 5 (100%)51%
Zambia: the bet landed in 2 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Burundi: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 70% · Zambia: only games against sides at Burundi's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Zambia or Both Teams ScoreLEANHELD · the odds board 81%
1.23
ZAM 2 of 5 (40%) · BDI 4 of 5 (80%)49.2%
Zambia: the bet landed in 2 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Burundi: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 67% · Zambia: only games against sides at Burundi's level · each game weighed by who it was against
GOALS
no price yet
ZAM 5 of 5 (100%) · BDI 5 of 5 (100%)97%
Zambia: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Burundi: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 100% · Zambia: only games against sides at Burundi's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Under 3.5 GoalsMAININ CODES
1.18
ZAM 5 of 5 (100%) · BDI 4 of 5 (80%)83.1%
Zambia: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Burundi: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 88% · Zambia: only games against sides at Burundi's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Over 0.5 GoalsFULL COVERHELD · the odds board 92%
1.09
ZAM 4 of 5 (80%) · BDI 5 of 5 (100%)70.8%
Zambia: over 0.5 goals in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Burundi: over 0.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 90% · Zambia: only games against sides at Burundi's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Under 2.5 GoalsLEANHELD · the odds board 65%
1.54
ZAM 5 of 5 (100%) · BDI 4 of 5 (80%)43.1%
Zambia: under 2.5 goals in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Burundi: under 2.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 88% · Zambia: only games against sides at Burundi's level · each game weighed by who it was against
BOTH TEAMS SCORE
Both Teams to Score - NoLEANHELD · the odds board 64%
1.56
ZAM 5 of 5 (100%) · BDI 5 of 5 (100%)40.6%
Zambia: not both scored in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Burundi: not both scored in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 91% · Zambia: only games against sides at Burundi's level · each game weighed by who it was against
ZAMBIA GOALS
Zambia Under 2.5 goalsIN CODES
1.19
ZAM 5 of 5 (100%) · BDI 5 of 5 (100%)83%
Zambia scored under 2.5 in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Burundi conceded under 2.5 in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 100% · Zambia: only games against sides at Burundi's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Zambia Over 0.5 goalsHELD · the odds board 81%
1.23
ZAM 2 of 5 (40%) · BDI 4 of 5 (80%)59.6%
Zambia scored in 2 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Burundi conceded in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 67% · Zambia: only games against sides at Burundi's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Zambia Under 1.5 goalsLEANHELD · the odds board 59%
1.69
ZAM 4 of 5 (80%) · BDI 3 of 5 (60%)37.9%
Zambia scored under 1.5 in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Burundi conceded under 1.5 in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 70% · Zambia: only games against sides at Burundi's level · each game weighed by who it was against
BURUNDI GOALS
Burundi Under 1.5 goalsSAFERIN CODES
1.14
BDI 4 of 5 (80%) · ZAM 5 of 5 (100%)84.8%
Burundi scored under 1.5 in 4 of 5 away · Zambia conceded under 1.5 in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 88% · Zambia: only games against sides at Burundi's level · each game weighed by who it was against
HALVES
1st half - Zambia Over/Under: Under 1.5PAGE ONLY
1.13
ZAM 5 of 5 (100%) · BDI 5 of 5 (100%)97%
Zambia: the bet landed in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Burundi: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 100% · on half-time scores · Zambia: only games against sides at Burundi's level · each game weighed by who it was against
2nd Half - Over/Under: Under 2.5PAGE ONLY
1.11
ZAM 5 of 5 (100%) · BDI 5 of 5 (100%)96.4%
Zambia: the bet landed in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Burundi: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 100% · on half-time scores · Zambia: only games against sides at Burundi's level · each game weighed by who it was against
1st Half - GG/NG: NoPAGE ONLY
1.12
ZAM 5 of 5 (100%) · BDI 5 of 5 (100%)93%
Zambia: the bet landed in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Burundi: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 91% · on half-time scores · Zambia: only games against sides at Burundi's level · each game weighed by who it was against
2nd Half - GG/NG: NoPAGE ONLY
1.17
ZAM 5 of 5 (100%) · BDI 5 of 5 (100%)89.9%
Zambia: the bet landed in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Burundi: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 100% · on half-time scores · Zambia: only games against sides at Burundi's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Excluded Number of Goals - First Half: 2PAGE ONLY
1.17
ZAM 5 of 5 (100%) · BDI 4 of 5 (80%)89.4%
Zambia: the bet landed in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Burundi: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 97% · on half-time scores · Zambia: only games against sides at Burundi's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Under 1.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY
1.30
ZAM 5 of 5 (100%) · BDI 4 of 5 (80%)85.7%
Zambia: the bet landed in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Burundi: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 88% · on half-time scores · Zambia: only games against sides at Burundi's level · each game weighed by who it was against
1st Half Burundi to Win to Nil: NoPAGE ONLY
1.13
ZAM 5 of 5 (100%) · BDI 4 of 5 (80%)77.7%
Zambia: the bet landed in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Burundi: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 97% · on half-time scores · Zambia: only games against sides at Burundi's level · each game weighed by who it was against
CORNERS
Over 5.5 CornersPAGE ONLY
no price yet
ZAM 6 of 6 (100%) · BDI 4 of 8 (50%)58.5%
Zambia's games: over 5.5 corners in 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Burundi's games: over 5.5 corners in 4 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 76% · each game weighed by who it was against
Left off the list: Over 2.5 Cards (the numbers (63%) and the records (84%) are 21 points apart, and nothing settles it); Burundi or Under 2.5 Goals (the numbers (69%) and the records (97%) are 28 points apart, and nothing settles it); Draw or Under 2.5 Goals (the numbers (65%) and the records (97%) are 32 points apart, and nothing settles it); Zambia or Any Clean Sheet: Yes (the numbers (77%) and the records (97%) are 20 points apart, and nothing settles it)