THE READ
Match details. SAFF Championship, Group Stage - 1. Kick-off is Wed 11 Nov, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at Bangabandhu National Stadium, Dhaka.
What's at stake. Bangladesh are 1st on 3 points after 1 game, 2 points clear of Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka are 2nd on 1 point after 1 game, 2 points behind Bangladesh, level on points with Bhutan. A win would take them above Bangladesh.
Form. Bangladesh have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L L L. In this competition Bangladesh have gone W. Sri Lanka have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L L W.
The numbers. Bangladesh score 0.9 and concede 2.1 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and four games without a goal. Bangladesh average 5.7 shots (2.0 on target), 4.3 corners and 2.3 cards a game, with 41% of the ball. Sri Lanka score 1.2 and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Sri Lanka average 3.0 corners and 1.0 cards a game.
Head to head. The last time they met, on 1 Oct 2021, it finished Bangladesh 1-0 Sri Lanka.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Bangladesh the likelier winners, but both teams' records favour Sri Lanka.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 1.5 goals at 60%, over 2.5 at 44%, under 4.5 at 89%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.33, rated 78% (Bangladesh: under 3.5 goals in 8 of 10; Sri Lanka: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 10). Backup: GG/NG 2+: No at 1.12. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Predicted score: Bangladesh 1-1 Sri Lanka (13% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Bangladesh the favourite), a tight game.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Bangladesh in their last internationals: won 1-0 at Bhutan, lost 0-1 at Singapore (rated above them), lost 0-3 v Malaysia (rated above them). Sri Lanka in their last internationals: drew 2-2 v Bhutan, won 3-2 at Mauritius (rated above them), won 2-0 at Seychelles.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
PICKSONE LIST
RESULT
Sri Lanka or Under 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
SRI 7 of 10 (70%) · BAN 10 of 10 (100%)66.4%
Sri Lanka: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Bangladesh: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 84% · each game weighed by who it was against
Bangladesh or Under 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
BAN 6 of 10 (60%) · SRI 7 of 10 (70%)52.5%
Bangladesh: the bet landed in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Sri Lanka: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 71% · each game weighed by who it was against
Draw or Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY
no price yet
BAN 6 of 10 (60%) · SRI 8 of 10 (80%)50.4%
Bangladesh: the bet landed in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Sri Lanka: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 68% · each game weighed by who it was against
Bangladesh or Both Teams ScoreLEANPAGE ONLY
no price yet
BAN 6 of 10 (60%) · SRI 8 of 10 (80%)49.7%
Bangladesh: the bet landed in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Sri Lanka: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 68% · each game weighed by who it was against
GOALS
no price yet
BAN 8 of 10 (80%) · SRI 10 of 10 (100%)97%
Bangladesh: under 5.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Sri Lanka: under 5.5 goals in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 89% · each game weighed by who it was against
no price yet
BAN 8 of 10 (80%) · SRI 10 of 10 (100%)91.3%
Bangladesh: under 4.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Sri Lanka: under 4.5 goals in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 89% · each game weighed by who it was against
Under 3.5 GoalsMAININ CODES
1.33
BAN 8 of 10 (80%) · SRI 6 of 10 (60%)78.7%
Bangladesh: under 3.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Sri Lanka: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 74% · each game weighed by who it was against
no price yet
BAN 9 of 10 (90%) · SRI 9 of 10 (90%)72.4%
Bangladesh: over 0.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Sri Lanka: over 0.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 91% · each game weighed by who it was against
BANGLADESH GOALS
Bangladesh Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
BAN 6 of 10 (60%) · SRI 8 of 10 (80%)59.3%
Bangladesh scored in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Sri Lanka conceded in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 68% · each game weighed by who it was against
Bangladesh Under 1.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.74
BAN 8 of 10 (80%) · SRI 7 of 10 (70%)38.4%
Bangladesh scored under 1.5 in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Sri Lanka conceded under 1.5 in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 73% · each game weighed by who it was against
SRI LANKA GOALS
Sri Lanka Over 0.5 goalsLEANHELD · the odds board 71%
1.40
SRI 7 of 10 (70%) · BAN 7 of 10 (70%)42.4%
Sri Lanka scored in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Bangladesh conceded in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 69% · each game weighed by who it was against
HALVES
1st Half Under 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
BAN 9 of 10 (90%) · SRI 9 of 10 (90%)87.8%
Bangladesh: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Sri Lanka: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 93% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
Excluded Number of Goals - First Half: 3+PAGE ONLY
1.10
BAN 9 of 10 (90%) · SRI 9 of 10 (90%)87.8%
Bangladesh: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Sri Lanka: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 93% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
Both Halves Over 1.5: NoPAGE ONLY
1.13
BAN 8 of 10 (80%) · SRI 9 of 10 (90%)84.3%
Bangladesh: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Sri Lanka: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 86% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
1st Half - GG/NG: NoPAGE ONLY
1.18
BAN 8 of 10 (80%) · SRI 9 of 10 (90%)83.5%
Bangladesh: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Sri Lanka: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 88% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
Excluded Number of Goals - First Half: 2PAGE ONLY
1.22
BAN 8 of 10 (80%) · SRI 9 of 10 (90%)78.6%
Bangladesh: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Sri Lanka: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 86% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
1st Half Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
1.39
BAN 8 of 10 (80%) · SRI 6 of 10 (60%)71.3%
Bangladesh: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Sri Lanka: the bet landed in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 73% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
Under 1.5 first-half goalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.41
BAN 7 of 10 (70%) · SRI 8 of 10 (80%)65.5%
Bangladesh: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Sri Lanka: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 79% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
OTHER
GG/NG 2+: NoBACKUPIN CODES
1.12
BAN 8 of 10 (80%) · SRI 9 of 10 (90%)88.6%
Bangladesh: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Sri Lanka: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 88% · each game weighed by who it was against