India vs Maldives
Match details. SAFF Championship, Group Stage - 2. Kick-off is Wed 11 Nov, 10:30 Lagos time. It is played at Bangabandhu National Stadium, Dhaka.
What's at stake. India are 2nd on 3 points after 1 game, level on points with Pakistan, 3 points clear of Maldives. A win would take them above Pakistan. Maldives are 3rd on 0 points after 1 game, 3 points behind India. A win would take them level on points with India.
Form. India have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L L D. Maldives have won one, drawn one and lost eight of their last ten, 0.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L L L.
The numbers. India score 0.6 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. India average 9.7 shots (3.0 on target), 6.7 corners and 1.4 cards a game. Maldives score 0.4 and concede two a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. Maldives average 2.0 corners and 1.7 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last five meetings India have won four, drawn none and lost one. Three of the five went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, India won three and Maldives won one. The last time they met, on 13 Oct 2021, it finished India 3-1 Maldives.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 90% against the records' 64%.
The read. No firm call: India are the better side, but not at this price. A mixed game. Their goals for and against make India the likelier winners; India are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour India; the meetings favour India.
The bets. No best bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: India 2-0 Maldives (15% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (India the favourite), a mixed game.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. India in their last internationals: won 3-2 at Pakistan, lost 1-6 v Uruguay (rated above them), lost 0-4 v Brazil (rated above them). Maldives in their last internationals: lost 0-3 v Pakistan, lost 0-6 v Lebanon, lost 0-5 at Kyrgyzstan.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).