THE READ
Match details. Africa Cup of Nations Qualification, Group Stage - 3. Kick-off is Fri 13 Nov, 14:00 Lagos time. It is played at Stade omnisports de Malouzini, Moroni.
What's at stake. Comoros are 2nd on 3 points after 2 games, 4 points behind Cameroon, level on points with Namibia. Congo are 4th on 1 point after 2 games, 2 points behind Namibia. A win would take them above Namibia.
Form. Comoros have won one, drawn two and lost seven of their last ten, 0.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L D D. In this competition Comoros have gone W L. Congo have won one, drawn five and lost four of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L L D. In this competition Congo have gone D L.
The numbers. Comoros score 0.5 and concede 1.5 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and five games without a goal. Comoros average 7.8 shots (2.2 on target), 3.6 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 40% of the ball. Congo score 0.3 and concede 1.3 a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet and four games without a goal. Congo average 8.0 shots (3.0 on target), 4.0 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 36% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Comoros the likelier winners, but both teams' records favour Congo.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 1.5 goals at 57%, over 2.5 at 41%, under 4.5 at 100%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.15, rated 83% (Comoros: under 3.5 goals in 7 of 10; Congo: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5). Full cover: Over 0.5 Goals at 1.11. Whenever the best bet loses, this one wins. Predicted score: Comoros 1-0 Congo (17% chance).
The agreed story. Comoros or the draw, a tight game.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Comoros in their last internationals: won 1-0 v Namibia, lost 1-3 at Cameroon (rated above them). Congo in their last internationals: drew 1-1 v Cameroon, lost 0-1 at Namibia. Too few internationals to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
PICKSONE LIST
RESULT
Comoros to Win Both Halves: NoPAGE ONLY
1.12
COM 10 of 10 (100%) · CGO 4 of 5 (80%)96.1%
Comoros: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Congo: the bet landed in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90% · on half-time scores · Congo: only games against sides at Comoros's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Congo to Win to Nil: NoHELD · the odds board 91%
1.10
CGO 5 of 5 (100%) · COM 7 of 10 (70%)65%
Congo: the bet landed in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Comoros: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85% · Congo: only games against sides at Comoros's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Draw or Over 2.5 GoalsIN CODES
1.57
COM 6 of 10 (60%) · CGO 4 of 5 (80%)53.2%
Comoros: the bet landed in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Congo: the bet landed in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 71% · Congo: only games against sides at Comoros's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Comoros or Both Teams ScoreLEANHELD · the odds board 78%
1.29
COM 5 of 10 (50%) · CGO 4 of 5 (80%)47.1%
Comoros: the bet landed in 5 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Congo: the bet landed in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 65% · Congo: only games against sides at Comoros's level · each game weighed by who it was against
GOALS
no price yet
COM 10 of 10 (100%) · CGO 5 of 5 (100%)97%
Comoros: under 5.5 goals in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Congo: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 100% · Congo: only games against sides at Comoros's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Under 3.5 GoalsMAININ CODES
1.15
COM 7 of 10 (70%) · CGO 4 of 5 (80%)85.4%
Comoros: under 3.5 goals in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Congo: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 73% · Congo: only games against sides at Comoros's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Over 0.5 GoalsFULL COVERHELD · the odds board 90%
1.11
COM 8 of 10 (80%) · CGO 4 of 5 (80%)69.5%
Comoros: over 0.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Congo: over 0.5 goals in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80% · Congo: only games against sides at Comoros's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Under 2.5 GoalsLEANHELD · the odds board 68%
1.47
COM 6 of 10 (60%) · CGO 3 of 5 (60%)46.3%
Comoros: under 2.5 goals in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Congo: under 2.5 goals in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 59% · Congo: only games against sides at Comoros's level · each game weighed by who it was against
COMOROS GOALS
Comoros Under 2.5 goalsIN CODES
1.14
COM 10 of 10 (100%) · CGO 4 of 5 (80%)82.6%
Comoros scored under 2.5 in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Congo conceded under 2.5 in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90% · Congo: only games against sides at Comoros's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Comoros Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES
1.29
COM 5 of 10 (50%) · CGO 4 of 5 (80%)59.9%
Comoros scored in 5 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Congo conceded in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 65% · Congo: only games against sides at Comoros's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Comoros Under 1.5 goalsLEANHELD · the odds board 65%
1.55
COM 10 of 10 (100%) · CGO 4 of 5 (80%)37.5%
Comoros scored under 1.5 in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Congo conceded under 1.5 in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90% · Congo: only games against sides at Comoros's level · each game weighed by who it was against
HALVES
1st half - Comoros Over/Under: Under 1.5PAGE ONLY
1.10
COM 10 of 10 (100%) · CGO 5 of 5 (100%)97%
Comoros: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Congo: the bet landed in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 100% · on half-time scores · Congo: only games against sides at Comoros's level · each game weighed by who it was against
2nd Half - Comoros Over/Under: Under 1.5PAGE ONLY
1.16
COM 10 of 10 (100%) · CGO 4 of 5 (80%)93.1%
Comoros: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Congo: the bet landed in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90% · on half-time scores · Congo: only games against sides at Comoros's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Comoros to Score In Both Halves: NoPAGE ONLY
1.24
COM 10 of 10 (100%) · CGO 4 of 5 (80%)92.8%
Comoros: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Congo: the bet landed in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90% · on half-time scores · Congo: only games against sides at Comoros's level · each game weighed by who it was against
1st Half - GG/NG: NoPAGE ONLY
1.11
COM 10 of 10 (100%) · CGO 4 of 5 (80%)92.1%
Comoros: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Congo: the bet landed in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90% · on half-time scores · Congo: only games against sides at Comoros's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Excluded Number of Goals - First Half: 2PAGE ONLY
1.15
COM 9 of 10 (90%) · CGO 5 of 5 (100%)87.4%
Comoros: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Congo: the bet landed in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 95% · on half-time scores · Congo: only games against sides at Comoros's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Under 1.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY
1.27
COM 8 of 10 (80%) · CGO 4 of 5 (80%)82.5%
Comoros: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Congo: the bet landed in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 79% · on half-time scores · Congo: only games against sides at Comoros's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Left off the list: Comoros or Under 2.5 Goals (the numbers (92%) and the records (69%) are 23 points apart, and nothing settles it); Congo or Under 2.5 Goals (the numbers (70%) and the records (90%) are 20 points apart, and nothing settles it); Congo win or both teams score (the numbers (46%) and the records (66%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it)