New Zealand vs India
Match details. An international friendly. Kick-off is Thu 12 Nov, 07:00 Lagos time. It is played at Go Media Stadium, Auckland.
What's at stake. It is a friendly, so no points ride on it.
Form. New Zealand have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D W L. India have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L L.
The numbers. New Zealand score 3.4 and concede 1.7 a game in their last seven at home, with two clean sheets. New Zealand average 9.7 shots (5.0 on target), 3.3 corners and 1.3 cards a game, with 42% of the ball. India score one and concede one a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. India average 9.7 shots (3.0 on target), 6.7 corners and 1.4 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 82% against the records' 42%.
The read. No firm call: New Zealand are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make New Zealand the likelier winners; New Zealand are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 1.5 goals at 88%, over 2.5 at 72%, under 4.5 at 72%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 2.5 Goals at 1.61, rated 70% (New Zealand: over 2.5 goals in 6 of 7 at home; India: over 2.5 goals in 2 of 6 away). The safer one: New Zealand or India at 1.11 (91%). Full cover: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.20. Whenever the best bet loses, this one wins. Predicted score: New Zealand 3-0 India (14% chance).
The agreed story. New Zealand or the draw, an open game.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).