Match details. Copa del Rey, Round of 128. Kick-off is Tue 10 Nov, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Campo Municipal de Urritxe, Amorebieta-Etxano.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. SD Amorebieta have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W L. UD Logrones have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W D L.
The numbers. SD Amorebieta score 1.2 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. SD Amorebieta average 12.0 shots (4.4 on target), 4.4 corners and 3.0 cards a game. UD Logrones score 2.7 and concede 1.5 a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet. UD Logrones average 11.9 shots (5.7 on target), 6.1 corners and 3.1 cards a game.
The case against. A knockout game (Round of 128) with penalties if level, and UD Logrones are not clearly stronger. SD Amorebieta's record still gives them 31% to win.
The read. UD Logrones or the draw. A mixed game. Their goals for and against make UD Logrones the likelier winners; both teams' records favour UD Logrones.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: SD Amorebieta 1-2 UD Logrones (9% chance).
The agreed story. UD Logrones or the draw, a mixed game.
Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. UD Logrones play a division above SD Amorebieta. Too few cup games on either side to read.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
PICKSONE LIST
RESULT
UD Logrones or Draw (1UP)IN CODES
1.23
UDL 4 of 5 (80%) · SDA 4 of 5 (80%)74.8%
UD Logrones scored first 2 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 4 · led or was unbeaten in 4 of 5 away · SD Amorebieta trailed or failed to win in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues)
UD Logrones or Under 2.5 GoalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
1.25
UDL 5 of 6 (83%) · SDA 3 of 5 (60%)69.9%
UD Logrones: the bet landed in 5 of 6 away · SD Amorebieta: the bet landed in 3 of 5 at home · both last 10: 80% · the call is UD Logrones or the draw: a knockout game (Round of 128) with penalties if level, and UD Logrones are not clearly stronger (rule 8)
UD Logrones or Over 2.5 GoalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
1.39
UDL 6 of 6 (100%) · SDA 4 of 5 (80%)65.3%
UD Logrones: the bet landed in 6 of 6 away · SD Amorebieta: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 70% · the call is UD Logrones or the draw: a knockout game (Round of 128) with penalties if level, and UD Logrones are not clearly stronger (rule 8)
Draw or Over 2.5 GoalsIN CODES
1.35
SDA 3 of 5 (60%) · UDL 6 of 6 (100%)58.7%
SD Amorebieta: the bet landed in 3 of 5 at home · UD Logrones: the bet landed in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 70%
UD Logrones 1UPTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
1.53
UDL 4 of 5 (80%) · SDA 4 of 5 (80%)55.3%
UD Logrones scored first 2 of last 5, led in 4 · led in 4 of 5 away · SD Amorebieta trailed in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · the call is UD Logrones or the draw: a knockout game (Round of 128) with penalties if level, and UD Logrones are not clearly stronger (rule 8)
GOALS
Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES
1.13
SDA 5 of 5 (100%) · UDL 5 of 6 (83%)94.9%
SD Amorebieta: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · UD Logrones: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 95%
Under 3.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
1.36
SDA 4 of 5 (80%) · UDL 3 of 6 (50%)70%
SD Amorebieta: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · UD Logrones: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 6 away · both last 10: 80%
Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
1.28
SDA 3 of 5 (60%) · UDL 6 of 6 (100%)61.2%
SD Amorebieta: over 1.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home · UD Logrones: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 75%
Over 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
1.85
SDA 3 of 5 (60%) · UDL 6 of 6 (100%)52.3%
SD Amorebieta: over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home · UD Logrones: over 2.5 goals in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 60%
BOTH TEAMS SCORE
Both Teams to Score - YesLEANPAGE ONLY
1.72
SDA 3 of 5 (60%) · UDL 5 of 6 (83%)51.4%
SD Amorebieta: both scored in 3 of 5 at home · UD Logrones: both scored in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 65%
SD AMOREBIETA GOALS
SD Amorebieta Over 0.5 GoalsIN CODES
1.39
SDA 4 of 5 (80%) · UDL 5 of 6 (83%)64.8%
SD Amorebieta scored in 4 of 5 at home · UD Logrones conceded in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 85%
UD LOGRONES GOALS
UD Logrones Over 0.5 GoalsIN CODES
1.22
UDL 6 of 6 (100%) · SDA 4 of 5 (80%)65%
UD Logrones scored in 6 of 6 away · SD Amorebieta conceded in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 80%
HALVES
1st Half Under 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
1.11
SDA 5 of 5 (100%) · UDL 4 of 6 (67%)92.2%
SD Amorebieta: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · UD Logrones: the bet landed in 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 90% · on half-time scores
1st Half SD Amorebieta to Win to Nil: NoPAGE ONLY
1.24
SDA 4 of 5 (80%) · UDL 5 of 6 (83%)77.2%
SD Amorebieta: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · UD Logrones: the bet landed in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 80% · on half-time scores
1st Half Over 0.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.38
SDA 4 of 5 (80%) · UDL 5 of 6 (83%)62.8%
SD Amorebieta: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · UD Logrones: the bet landed in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 70% · on half-time scores
CARDS
Over 3.5 CardsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
SDA 5 of 5 (100%) · UDL 5 of 5 (100%)97%
SD Amorebieta's games: over 3.5 cards in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · UD Logrones's games: over 3.5 cards in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 94%
Left off the list: Over 6.5 Corners (the numbers (72%) and the records (100%) are 28 points apart, and nothing settles it); SD Amorebieta 1UP (the numbers (48%) and the records (73%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); SD Amorebieta or Draw (1UP) (the numbers (61%) and the records (87%) are 26 points apart, and nothing settles it)
SCORELINES
Predicted score
Predicted score 1–29.4%
SD Amorebieta goals →
UD Logrones goals ↓
0-05%
1-05%
2-04%
3-02%
4-00.6%
5-00.2%
0-17%
1-111%
2-17%
3-13%
4-11%
5-10.3%
0-27%
1-29%
2-26%
3-23%
4-21.0%
5-20.3%
0-34%
1-36%
2-34%
3-32%
4-30.6%
5-30.2%
0-42%
1-43%
2-42%
3-40.8%
4-40.3%
5-40.1%
0-50.7%
1-51.0%
2-50.7%
3-50.3%
4-50.1%
5-50.0%
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).
FORM · LAST 10
SD AMOREBIETALWWWLWLWLD1.60 PPG
UD LOGRONESWLWDLWWDWW2.00 PPG
THE NUMBERS
SD AMOREBIETA HOMExUD LOGRONES AWAY
1.20SCORED A GAME2.001.00CONCEDED A GAME1.3030%CLEAN SHEETS10%4.40CORNERS A GAME6.113.00CARDS A GAME3.11
THE BANK
THE BANKER MENU
OVER 1.5 CARDS
–
543 OF 573
PRICE NOT KEPT
Both sides' last 5 games point to 5.2+ cards.
Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.
THE QUALITY READ
1.60POINTS A GAME2.09+0.20GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.73+4.0SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+1.01.8LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.410LEAGUE GAMES11
No quality side: neither club is ahead on more of these.
Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.
THE BANK'S READ
OVER 1.5 GOALS
80%
OKAY · 80/83
OVER 2.5 GOALS
67%
OKAY · 65/78
UNDER 4.5 GOALS
97%
VERY GOOD · 85/90
SD AMOREBIETA OR DRAW
31%
NO · 80/85
UD LOGRONES OR DRAW
74%
NO · 80/85
Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (10 and 11 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.
SD AMOREBIETAxUD LOGRONES
5GAMES61.20SCORED A GAME2.671.20CONCEDED A GAME1.502.4GOALS IN THEIR GAMES4.260%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%60%OVER 2.5 GOALS100%60%BOTH SCORE83%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES5.6–CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES9.4
Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.
TRENDS
SD Amorebieta have scored in 80% of their games.
UD Logrones have scored in 90% of their games.
SD Amorebieta kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.
UD Logrones kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.
BUILT FROM
form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetscornerscards