CD Pamplona vs Eibar

Match details. Copa del Rey, Round of 128. Kick-off is Tue 10 Nov, 19:00 Lagos time. It is played at Campo de Futbol Beitikuntzea, Navarre.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. CD Pamplona have won one, drawn four and lost five of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L W L. Eibar have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L D L W.

The numbers. CD Pamplona score one and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. CD Pamplona average 11.7 shots (3.0 on target), 4.7 corners and 3.7 cards a game. Eibar score 1.8 and concede 1.2 a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets. Eibar average 14.0 shots (5.4 on target), 3.2 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 47% of the ball.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 83% against the records' 47%.

The read. No firm call: Eibar are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Eibar are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Eibar. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 1.5 goals at 71%, over 2.5 at 44%, under 4.5 at 88%.

The bets. Best bet: Eibar Over/Under: Under 4.5 at 1.10, rated 98% (Eibar scored under 4.5 in 6 of 6 away; CD Pamplona conceded under 4.5 in 5 of 5 at home). Full cover: Draw or Over 2.5 Goals at 1.31. Whenever the best bet loses, this one wins. Predicted score: CD Pamplona 1-1 Eibar (13% chance).

The agreed story. Eibar or the draw, a tight game.

Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Eibar play in a division above CD Pamplona. Too few cup games on either side to read.

So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.