Cape Verde vs Liberia
Match details. Africa Cup of Nations Qualification, Group Stage - 3. Kick-off is Fri 13 Nov, 17:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Cape Verde are 3rd on 0 points after 2 games, 6 points behind Mali, level on points with Liberia. Liberia are 4th on 0 points after 2 games, level on points with Cape Verde Islands. A win would take them above Cape Verde Islands.
Form. Cape Verde have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D D D. In this competition Cape Verde have gone L L. Liberia have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D W D. In this competition Liberia have gone L L.
The numbers. Cape Verde score 1.5 and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets and two games without a goal. Cape Verde average 11.2 shots (3.0 on target), 2.8 corners and 1.4 cards a game, with 45% of the ball. Liberia score 0.8 and concede 2.4 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Liberia average 6.9 shots (2.4 on target), 4.0 corners and 2.2 cards a game.
Head to head. Cape Verde have won all of the last two meetings. One of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 10 Oct 2021, it finished Cape Verde 1-0 Liberia.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 79% against the records' 47%.
The read. No firm call: Cape Verde are the better side, but not at this price. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Cape Verde the likelier winners; Cape Verde are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Cape Verde.
The bets. Best bet: Cape Verde Under 3.5 Goals at 1.17, rated 79% (Cape Verde scored under 3.5 in 10 of 10; Liberia conceded under 3.5 in 5 of 5 away). Full cover: Cape Verde Over 0.5 Goals at 1.09. Whenever the best bet loses, this one wins. Predicted score: Cape Verde 2-0 Liberia (15% chance).
The agreed story. Cape Verde or the draw, a tight game.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Cape Verde in their last internationals: lost 1-2 v Rwanda, lost 1-3 at Mali. Liberia in their last internationals: lost 0-1 v Mali, lost 1-3 at Rwanda. Too few internationals to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).