Senegal vs Sudan
Match details. Africa Cup of Nations Qualification, Group Stage - 3. Kick-off is Thu 12 Nov, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Stade Me Abdoulaye Wade, Diamniadio.
What's at stake. Senegal are 1st on 4 points after 2 games, level on points with Mozambique. Sudan are 3rd on 3 points after 2 games, 1 point behind Mozambique, 3 points clear of Ethiopia. A win would take them above Mozambique.
Form. Senegal have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W L L. In this competition Senegal have gone W D. Sudan have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L L W. In this competition Sudan have gone L W.
The numbers. Senegal score 1.9 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets. Senegal average 14.5 shots (5.9 on target), 6.5 corners and 2.1 cards a game, with 62% of the ball. Sudan score 0.7 and concede 2.2 a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Sudan average 10.0 shots (2.3 on target), 3.8 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 36% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last six meetings Senegal have won four, drawn two and lost none. Two of the six went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. In the last four, Senegal won two and two were drawn. The last time they met, on 3 Jan 2026, it finished Senegal 3-1 Sudan: Senegal had 14 shots to 9, 67% of the ball, four yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 91% against the records' 63%.
The read. No firm call: Senegal are the better side, but not at this price. A draw is live. A mixed game. Their goals for and against make Senegal the likelier winners; Senegal are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Senegal; the meetings favour Senegal.
The bets. Best bet: Senegal Over/Under: Under 4.5 at 1.15, rated 96% (Senegal scored under 4.5 in 9 of 10; Sudan conceded under 4.5 in 6 of 6 away). Full cover: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.17. Whenever the best bet loses, this one wins. Predicted score: Senegal 3-0 Sudan (16% chance).
The agreed story. Senegal or the draw, a mixed game.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Senegal in their last internationals: won 1-0 at Ethiopia, drew 1-1 v Mozambique, drew 1-1 at Mozambique. Sudan in their last internationals: lost 1-4 at Mozambique, won 1-0 v Ethiopia. Too few internationals to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).