Nigeria vs Tanzania
Match details. Africa Cup of Nations Qualification, Group Stage - 3. Kick-off is Fri 13 Nov, 17:00 Lagos time. It is played at Godswill Akpabio International Stadium, Uyo.
What's at stake. Nigeria are 2nd on 3 points after 2 games, 4 points behind Guinea-Bissau, 1 point clear of Madagascar. Tanzania are 4th on 1 point after 2 games, 1 point behind Madagascar. A win would take them above Madagascar.
Form. Nigeria have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D D W. Tanzania have won one, drawn three and lost six of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W L L. In this competition Tanzania have gone D L.
The numbers. Nigeria score two and concede 0.8 a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets. Nigeria average 9.7 shots (3.5 on target), 3.9 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 60% of the ball. Tanzania score 1.8 and concede one a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Tanzania average 10.5 shots (2.3 on target), 2.3 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 42% of the ball.
Head to head. The last time they met, on 23 Dec 2025, it finished Nigeria 2-1 Tanzania: Nigeria had 21 shots to 11, 59% of the ball, one yellow card.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 83% against the records' 59%.
The read. No firm call: Nigeria are the better side, but not at this price. A mixed game. Their goals for and against make Nigeria the likelier winners; Nigeria are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Nigeria.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Nigeria 2-0 Tanzania (16% chance).
The agreed story. Nigeria or the draw, a mixed game.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Nigeria in their last internationals: drew 3-3 at Russia, lost 0-3 at Guinea-Bissau, won 2-1 v Madagascar. Tanzania in their last internationals: drew 1-1 at Madagascar, lost 0-2 v Guinea-Bissau. Too few internationals to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).