Mozambique vs Ethiopia
Mozambique: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Ethiopia: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 81% · each game weighed by who it was against
Match details. Mozambique take on Ethiopia in Africa Cup of Nations Qualification, Group Stage - 3. Kick-off is Fri 13 Nov, 14:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Mozambique are 2nd on 4 points after 2 games, 3 points behind Senegal and 1 point clear of Sudan. A win would take them level on points with Senegal. Ethiopia are 4th on 0 points after 2 games, 3 points behind Sudan. A win would take them level on points with Sudan.
Form. Mozambique have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, getting 1.3 points a game. Their last five read W D L L W, and in this competition they have gone W D. Ethiopia have won four, drawn none and lost six of their last ten, getting 1.2 points a game. Their last five read L L W W L.
The numbers. Mozambique score 1.8 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. They average 8.0 shots (2.7 on target), 2.3 corners and 1.4 cards a game, with 46% of the ball. Ethiopia score 0.8 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. They average 8.0 shots (3.2 on target), 2.4 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 46% of the ball.
Head to head. The last time they met, on 14 Jan 2023, it finished Mozambique 0-0 Ethiopia.
The case against. Ethiopia's record still gives them 29% to win.
The read. Mozambique to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Mozambique the likelier winners, and they are the stronger side on form and the table. Both teams' records favour Mozambique, though their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 1.5 goals at 85%, over 2.5 at 44%, and under 4.5 at 91%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.23, rated 79% (Mozambique: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Ethiopia: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). The safer one: Ethiopia Under 1.5 Goals at 1.15 (83%). Full cover: Mozambique or Over 2.5 Goals at 1.36. Whenever the best bet loses, this one wins. Predicted score: Mozambique 1-0 Ethiopia (15% chance).
The agreed story. Mozambique or the draw, a tight game.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Mozambique in their last internationals: won 4-1 v Sudan, drew 1-1 at Senegal (rated above them), drew 1-1 v Senegal (rated above them). Ethiopia in their last internationals: lost 0-1 v Senegal (rated above them), lost 0-1 at Sudan. Too few internationals to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).