Match details. An international friendly. Kick-off is Tue 10 Nov, 13:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is a friendly, so no points ride on it.
Form. Vietnam have won one, drawn one and lost four of their last six, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W D L. Thailand have won two, drawn one and lost three of their last six, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W W L.
The numbers. Vietnam score 0.7 and concede 2.3 a game over their last six, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Vietnam average 13.0 shots (3.8 on target), 4.2 corners and 0.8 cards a game. Thailand score 1.5 and concede two a game over their last six, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. Thailand average 8.8 shots (3.8 on target), 3.5 corners and 2.5 cards a game.
The case against. Vietnam's record still gives them 33% to win.
The read. Thailand to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Thailand the likelier winners; Thailand are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Thailand. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 58%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Vietnam 1-2 Thailand (10% chance).
The agreed story. Thailand or the draw, an open game.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).