Ivory Coast vs Gambia
Match details. Africa Cup of Nations Qualification, Group Stage - 3. Kick-off is Thu 12 Nov, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Stade de la Paix.
What's at stake. Ivory Coast are 1st on 6 points after 2 games, level on points with Gambia. Gambia are 2nd on 6 points after 2 games, level on points with Ivory Coast, 3 points clear of Ghana. A win would take them above Ivory Coast.
Form. Ivory Coast have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W L. In this competition Ivory Coast have gone W W. Gambia have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L W. In this competition Gambia have gone W W.
The numbers. Ivory Coast score 1.6 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Ivory Coast average 14.2 shots (3.9 on target), 6.6 corners and 1.1 cards a game, with 58% of the ball. Gambia score 2.8 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Gambia average 11.2 shots (6.8 on target), 1.5 corners and 2.4 cards a game.
Head to head. Ivory Coast have won all of the last two meetings. None of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in none. The last time they met, on 24 Mar 2025, it finished Ivory Coast 1-0 Gambia.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 83% against the records' 60%.
The read. No firm call: Ivory Coast are the better side, but not at this price. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Ivory Coast the likelier winners; Ivory Coast are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Ivory Coast.
The bets. Best bet: Ivory Coast Under 3.5 Goals at 1.25, rated 78% (Ivory Coast scored under 3.5 in 5 of 5 at home; Gambia conceded under 3.5 in 5 of 5 away). Full cover: Ivory Coast or Over 2.5 Goals at 1.13. Whenever the best bet loses, this one wins. Predicted score: Ivory Coast 2-0 Gambia (14% chance).
The agreed story. Ivory Coast or the draw, a tight game.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Ivory Coast in their last internationals: lost 0-1 v Cameroon, won 2-0 at Somalia, won 2-0 v Ghana. Gambia in their last internationals: won 4-2 at Ghana, won 2-1 v Somalia. Too few internationals to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).