Cameroon vs Namibia
Match details. Africa Cup of Nations Qualification, Group Stage - 3. Kick-off is Thu 12 Nov, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Kouekong Stadium, Bafoussam.
What's at stake. Cameroon are 1st on 4 points after 2 games, 1 point clear of Comoros. Namibia are 3rd on 3 points after 2 games, level on points with Comoros, 2 points clear of Congo. A win would take them above Comoros.
Form. Cameroon have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W L L. In this competition Cameroon have gone D W. Namibia have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L L L. In this competition Namibia have gone L W.
The numbers. Cameroon score 1.2 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Cameroon average 13.8 shots (2.8 on target), 5.5 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 53% of the ball. Namibia score 0.4 and concede two a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. Namibia average 11.3 shots (3.9 on target), 6.0 corners and 2.2 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last four meetings Cameroon have won one, drawn two and lost one. One of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 13 Nov 2024, it finished Cameroon 0-0 Namibia.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 80% against the records' 50%.
The read. No firm call: Cameroon are the better side, but not at this price. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Cameroon the likelier winners; Cameroon are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Cameroon.
The bets. Best bet: Cameroon Under 3.5 Goals at 1.13, rated 79% (Cameroon scored under 3.5 in 10 of 10; Namibia conceded under 3.5 in 5 of 5 away). Full cover: Cameroon Over 0.5 Goals at 1.11. Whenever the best bet loses, this one wins. Predicted score: Cameroon 2-0 Namibia (16% chance).
The agreed story. Cameroon or the draw, a tight game.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Cameroon in their last internationals: won 1-0 at Ivory Coast (rated above them), drew 1-1 at Congo, won 3-1 v Comoros. Namibia in their last internationals: lost 0-6 at Russia, lost 0-1 at Comoros, won 1-0 v Congo.
So. A banker match for Cameroon not to lose.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).