THE READ
Match details. Africa Cup of Nations Qualification, Group Stage - 3. Kick-off is Thu 12 Nov, 17:00 Lagos time. It is played at George V Stadium, Curepipe.
What's at stake. Madagascar are 4th on 1 point after 2 games, level on points with Tanzania. A win would take them above Tanzania. Guinea-Bissau are 1st on 6 points after 2 games, 3 points clear of Nigeria.
Form. Madagascar have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L W W. In this competition Madagascar have gone D L. Guinea-Bissau have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L L W. In this competition Guinea-Bissau have gone W W.
The numbers. Madagascar score two and concede one a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Madagascar average 8.1 shots (3.1 on target), 2.5 corners and 2.4 cards a game. Guinea-Bissau score 0.8 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Guinea-Bissau average 11.8 shots (4.0 on target), 2.0 corners and 1.4 cards a game.
The case against. Guinea-Bissau's record still gives them 34% to win.
The read. Madagascar to win. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Madagascar the likelier winners; Madagascar are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Madagascar.
The bets. Best bet: Guinea-Bissau Under 2.5 Goals at 1.11, rated 93% (Guinea-Bissau scored under 2.5 in 5 of 5; Madagascar conceded under 2.5 in 4 of 5 at home). Full cover: Over 0.5 Goals at 1.10. Whenever the best bet loses, this one wins. Predicted score: Madagascar 1-0 Guinea-Bissau (13% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Madagascar the favourite), a tight game.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Madagascar in their last internationals: drew 1-1 v Tanzania, lost 1-2 at Nigeria (rated above them). Guinea-Bissau in their last internationals: won 3-0 v Nigeria (rated above them), won 2-0 at Tanzania. Too few internationals to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
PICKSONE LIST
RESULT
Madagascar or Both Teams ScoreIN CODES
1.55
MAD 5 of 5 (100%) · GNB 4 of 5 (80%)72%
Madagascar: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · Guinea-Bissau: the bet landed in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90% · Guinea-Bissau: only games against sides at Madagascar's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Guinea-Bissau to Win to Nil: NoIN CODES
1.29
GNB 4 of 5 (80%) · MAD 5 of 5 (100%)72%
Guinea-Bissau: the bet landed in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Madagascar: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · both last 10: 90% · Guinea-Bissau: only games against sides at Madagascar's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Madagascar to Win to Nil: NoIN CODES
1.15
MAD 3 of 5 (60%) · GNB 5 of 5 (100%)70.7%
Madagascar: the bet landed in 3 of 5 at home · Guinea-Bissau: the bet landed in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 95% · Guinea-Bissau: only games against sides at Madagascar's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Draw or Over 2.5 GoalsIN CODES
1.50
MAD 3 of 5 (60%) · GNB 4 of 5 (80%)60.7%
Madagascar: the bet landed in 3 of 5 at home · Guinea-Bissau: the bet landed in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85% · Guinea-Bissau: only games against sides at Madagascar's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Madagascar or Under 2.5 GoalsHELD · the odds board 78%
1.28
MAD 4 of 5 (80%) · GNB 5 of 5 (100%)57.6%
Madagascar: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Guinea-Bissau: the bet landed in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 72% · Guinea-Bissau: only games against sides at Madagascar's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Madagascar or Over 2.5 GoalsIN CODES
1.81
MAD 4 of 5 (80%) · GNB 3 of 5 (60%)54.7%
Madagascar: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Guinea-Bissau: the bet landed in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 76% · Guinea-Bissau: only games against sides at Madagascar's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Double Chance: Madagascar or Guinea-BissauIN CODES
1.36
MAD 4 of 5 (80%) · GNB 4 of 5 (80%)53.6%
Madagascar: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Guinea-Bissau: the bet landed in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 86% · Guinea-Bissau: only games against sides at Madagascar's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Guinea-Bissau or Over 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
1.60
GNB 4 of 5 (80%) · MAD 2 of 5 (40%)53.3%
Guinea-Bissau: the bet landed in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Madagascar: the bet landed in 2 of 5 at home · both last 10: 81% · Guinea-Bissau: only games against sides at Madagascar's level · each game weighed by who it was against
2nd Half - Double Chance: Madagascar or Guinea-BissauLEANPAGE ONLY
1.56
MAD 4 of 5 (80%) · GNB 5 of 5 (100%)49.6%
Madagascar: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Guinea-Bissau: the bet landed in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 83% · on half-time scores · Guinea-Bissau: only games against sides at Madagascar's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Madagascar or Draw & Over 1.5LEANPAGE ONLY
2.50
MAD 4 of 5 (80%) · GNB 4 of 5 (80%)38.7%
Madagascar: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Guinea-Bissau: the bet landed in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 62% · Guinea-Bissau: only games against sides at Madagascar's level · each game weighed by who it was against
GOALS
no price yet
MAD 5 of 5 (100%) · GNB 5 of 5 (100%)97%
Madagascar: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · Guinea-Bissau: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 100% · Guinea-Bissau: only games against sides at Madagascar's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Over 0.5 GoalsFULL COVERIN CODES
1.10
MAD 5 of 5 (100%) · GNB 5 of 5 (100%)71.6%
Madagascar: over 0.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · Guinea-Bissau: over 0.5 goals in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 100% · Guinea-Bissau: only games against sides at Madagascar's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Over 1.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.49
MAD 5 of 5 (100%) · GNB 5 of 5 (100%)50.1%
Madagascar: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · Guinea-Bissau: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 100% · Guinea-Bissau: only games against sides at Madagascar's level · each game weighed by who it was against
MADAGASCAR GOALS
Madagascar Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES
1.55
MAD 5 of 5 (100%) · GNB 4 of 5 (80%)57.5%
Madagascar scored in 5 of 5 at home · Guinea-Bissau conceded in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90% · Guinea-Bissau: only games against sides at Madagascar's level · each game weighed by who it was against
GUINEA-BISSAU GOALS
Guinea-Bissau Under 2.5 goalsMAININ CODES
1.11
GNB 5 of 5 (100%) · MAD 4 of 5 (80%)94.4%
Guinea-Bissau scored under 2.5 in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Madagascar conceded under 2.5 in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 84% · Guinea-Bissau: only games against sides at Madagascar's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Guinea-Bissau Under 1.5 goalsIN CODES
1.46
GNB 4 of 5 (80%) · MAD 4 of 5 (80%)58.6%
Guinea-Bissau scored under 1.5 in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Madagascar conceded under 1.5 in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 62% · Guinea-Bissau: only games against sides at Madagascar's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Guinea-Bissau Over 0.5 goalsLEANHELD · the odds board 75%
1.34
GNB 5 of 5 (100%) · MAD 3 of 5 (60%)42.1%
Guinea-Bissau scored in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Madagascar conceded in 3 of 5 at home · both last 10: 95% · Guinea-Bissau: only games against sides at Madagascar's level · each game weighed by who it was against
HALVES
2nd Half - Guinea-Bissau Over/Under: Under 1.5PAGE ONLY
1.13
GNB 5 of 5 (100%) · MAD 5 of 5 (100%)92.1%
Guinea-Bissau: the bet landed in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Madagascar: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · both last 10: 92% · on half-time scores · Guinea-Bissau: only games against sides at Madagascar's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Excluded Number of Goals - First Half: 2PAGE ONLY
1.16
MAD 5 of 5 (100%) · GNB 4 of 5 (80%)78.5%
Madagascar: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · Guinea-Bissau: the bet landed in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 68% · on half-time scores · Guinea-Bissau: only games against sides at Madagascar's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY
1.56
MAD 4 of 5 (80%) · GNB 5 of 5 (100%)71.6%
Madagascar: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Guinea-Bissau: the bet landed in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 97% · on half-time scores · Guinea-Bissau: only games against sides at Madagascar's level · each game weighed by who it was against
CARDS
no price yet
MAD 5 of 5 (100%) · GNB 3 of 5 (60%)91.3%
Madagascar's games: over 2.5 cards in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Guinea-Bissau's games: over 2.5 cards in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 91% · each game weighed by who it was against
Left off the list: Guinea-Bissau win or both teams score (the numbers (60%) and the records (89%) are 29 points apart, and nothing settles it)