Guinea vs Eritrea

Match details. Africa Cup of Nations Qualification, Group Stage - 3. Kick-off is Thu 12 Nov, 18:00 Lagos time. It is played at Stade du 28 Septembre, Conakry. The referee is Patrick Tanguy Jean Philippe.

What's at stake. Guinea are 2nd on 3 points after 2 games, 3 points behind South Africa, 2 points clear of Eritrea. A win would take them level on points with South Africa. Eritrea are 3rd on 1 point after 2 games, 2 points behind Guinea, level on points with Kenya. A win would take them above Guinea.

Form. Guinea have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D W D. In this competition Guinea have gone W L. Eritrea have won two, drawn one and lost one of their last four, 1.8 points a game. Their last four, newest first: L D W W.

The numbers. Guinea score 0.8 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Guinea average 5.8 shots (2.2 on target), 6.2 corners and 1.4 cards a game, with 54% of the ball. Eritrea score 1.2 and concede 1.8 a game over their last four, with one clean sheet. Eritrea average 3.2 shots (2.0 on target), 2.5 corners and 1.0 cards a game, with 43% of the ball.

The read. Guinea to win. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Guinea the likelier winners; Guinea are the stronger side on form and the table.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Guinea 2-0 Eritrea (15% chance).

The agreed story. Guinea to win, a tight game.

Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Guinea in their last internationals: won 1-0 v Kenya, lost 1-2 at South Africa (rated above them). Eritrea in their last internationals: lost 0-5 v South Africa, drew 1-1 at Kenya. Too few internationals to judge the side from.

So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.