THE READ
Match details. Africa Cup of Nations Qualification, Group Stage - 3. Kick-off is Thu 12 Nov, 17:00 Lagos time. It is played at Nuevo Estadio de Malabo.
What's at stake. Equatorial Guinea are 3rd on 3 points after 2 games, level on points with Zimbabwe, 3 points clear of Sierra Leone. A win would take them above Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe are 2nd on 3 points after 2 games, 3 points behind Congo DR, level on points with Equatorial Guinea. A win would take them level on points with Congo DR.
Form. Equatorial Guinea have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L L L. In this competition Equatorial Guinea have gone W L. Zimbabwe have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L D L. In this competition Zimbabwe have gone L W.
The numbers. Equatorial Guinea score 0.8 and concede one a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Equatorial Guinea average 8.4 shots (2.2 on target), 3.0 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 45% of the ball. Zimbabwe score 1.3 and concede 1.3 a game in their last six away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Zimbabwe average 11.7 shots (3.7 on target), 4.3 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 38% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Equatorial Guinea the likelier winners, but both teams' records favour Zimbabwe.
The read. No side to back. A draw is live. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 1.5 goals at 63%, over 2.5 at 43%, under 4.5 at 93%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.16, rated 80% (Equatorial Guinea: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 6 at home; Zimbabwe: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 6 away). Full cover: Any Team to lead by 1 Goal at any time: Yes at 1.10. Whenever the best bet loses, this one wins. Predicted score: Equatorial Guinea 1-1 Zimbabwe (14% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Equatorial Guinea the favourite), a tight game.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Equatorial Guinea in their last internationals: won 1-0 v Sierra Leone, lost 0-2 at Congo DR (rated above them). Zimbabwe in their last internationals: lost 1-2 v Congo DR (rated above them), won 3-2 at Sierra Leone. Too few internationals to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
PICKSONE LIST
RESULT
Zimbabwe win or both teams scoreIN CODES
1.50
ZIM 4 of 6 (67%) · EQG 4 of 6 (67%)60.6%
Zimbabwe: the bet landed in 4 of 6 away · Equatorial Guinea: the bet landed in 4 of 6 at home · both last 10: 78% · each game weighed by who it was against
Equatorial Guinea or Both Teams ScoreIN CODES
1.42
EQG 4 of 6 (67%) · ZIM 6 of 6 (100%)60.1%
Equatorial Guinea: the bet landed in 4 of 6 at home · Zimbabwe: the bet landed in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 74% · each game weighed by who it was against
Zimbabwe or Under 2.5 GoalsHELD · the odds board 82%
1.22
ZIM 5 of 6 (83%) · EQG 6 of 6 (100%)56.9%
Zimbabwe: the bet landed in 5 of 6 away · Equatorial Guinea: the bet landed in 6 of 6 at home · both last 10: 79% · each game weighed by who it was against
Equatorial Guinea or Under 2.5 GoalsHELD · the odds board 85%
1.18
EQG 5 of 6 (83%) · ZIM 4 of 6 (67%)55.2%
Equatorial Guinea: the bet landed in 5 of 6 at home · Zimbabwe: the bet landed in 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 77% · each game weighed by who it was against
1st Half - Double Chance: Draw or ZimbabweHELD · the odds board 77%
1.30
ZIM 5 of 6 (83%) · EQG 4 of 6 (67%)54.3%
Zimbabwe: the bet landed in 5 of 6 away · Equatorial Guinea: the bet landed in 4 of 6 at home · both last 10: 81% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
Zimbabwe or Draw (1UP)LEANHELD · the odds board 72%
1.38
ZIM 3 of 5 (60%) · EQG 4 of 6 (67%)50.9%
Zimbabwe scored first 1 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 3 · led or was unbeaten in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Equatorial Guinea trailed or failed to win in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues)
Equatorial Guinea or Draw (1UP)LEANHELD · the odds board 77%
1.30
EQG 2 of 5 (40%) · ZIM 2 of 5 (40%)42%
Equatorial Guinea scored first 2 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 2 · led or was unbeaten in 2 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Zimbabwe trailed or failed to win in 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues)
Equatorial Guinea 1UPLEANPAGE ONLY
1.82
EQG 2 of 5 (40%) · ZIM 2 of 5 (40%)36.4%
Equatorial Guinea scored first 2 of last 5, led in 2 · led in 2 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Zimbabwe trailed in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues)
Equatorial Guinea or draw and under 3.5 goalsLEANHELD · the odds board 63%
1.58
EQG 3 of 6 (50%) · ZIM 4 of 6 (67%)32.9%
Equatorial Guinea: the bet landed in 3 of 6 at home · Zimbabwe: the bet landed in 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 49% · each game weighed by who it was against
GOALS
no price yet
EQG 6 of 6 (100%) · ZIM 6 of 6 (100%)97%
Equatorial Guinea: under 5.5 goals in 6 of 6 at home · Zimbabwe: under 5.5 goals in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 100% · each game weighed by who it was against
Under 3.5 GoalsMAININ CODES
1.16
EQG 5 of 6 (83%) · ZIM 4 of 6 (67%)81.5%
Equatorial Guinea: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 6 at home · Zimbabwe: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 76% · each game weighed by who it was against
1.11
EQG 6 of 6 (100%) · ZIM 6 of 6 (100%)71.5%
Equatorial Guinea: over 0.5 goals in 6 of 6 at home · Zimbabwe: over 0.5 goals in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 94% · each game weighed by who it was against
Under 2.5 GoalsLEANHELD · the odds board 68%
1.48
EQG 5 of 6 (83%) · ZIM 3 of 6 (50%)41.1%
Equatorial Guinea: under 2.5 goals in 5 of 6 at home · Zimbabwe: under 2.5 goals in 3 of 6 away · both last 10: 56% · each game weighed by who it was against
EQUATORIAL GUINEA GOALS
Equatorial Guinea Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES
1.42
EQG 4 of 6 (67%) · ZIM 6 of 6 (100%)56.9%
Equatorial Guinea scored in 4 of 6 at home · Zimbabwe conceded in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 74% · each game weighed by who it was against
Equatorial Guinea Under 1.5 goalsLEANHELD · the odds board 73%
1.37
EQG 5 of 6 (83%) · ZIM 4 of 6 (67%)41.8%
Equatorial Guinea scored under 1.5 in 5 of 6 at home · Zimbabwe conceded under 1.5 in 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 74% · each game weighed by who it was against
ZIMBABWE GOALS
Zimbabwe Under 1.5 goalsIN CODES
1.30
ZIM 4 of 6 (67%) · EQG 5 of 6 (83%)57.8%
Zimbabwe scored under 1.5 in 4 of 6 away · Equatorial Guinea conceded under 1.5 in 5 of 6 at home · both last 10: 61% · each game weighed by who it was against
Zimbabwe Over 0.5 goalsLEANHELD · the odds board 67%
1.50
ZIM 4 of 6 (67%) · EQG 4 of 6 (67%)42.9%
Zimbabwe scored in 4 of 6 away · Equatorial Guinea conceded in 4 of 6 at home · both last 10: 78% · each game weighed by who it was against
HALVES
2nd Half - Over/Under: Under 2.5PAGE ONLY
1.10
EQG 6 of 6 (100%) · ZIM 5 of 6 (83%)92.4%
Equatorial Guinea: the bet landed in 6 of 6 at home · Zimbabwe: the bet landed in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 82% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
2nd Half - Equatorial Guinea Over/Under: Under 1.5PAGE ONLY
1.11
EQG 6 of 6 (100%) · ZIM 5 of 6 (83%)91.7%
Equatorial Guinea: the bet landed in 6 of 6 at home · Zimbabwe: the bet landed in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 85% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
1st Half - GG/NG: NoPAGE ONLY
1.13
EQG 5 of 6 (83%) · ZIM 4 of 6 (67%)84.6%
Equatorial Guinea: the bet landed in 5 of 6 at home · Zimbabwe: the bet landed in 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 80% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
Zimbabwe to Score In Both Halves: NoPAGE ONLY
1.12
EQG 6 of 6 (100%) · ZIM 5 of 6 (83%)84.6%
Equatorial Guinea: the bet landed in 6 of 6 at home · Zimbabwe: the bet landed in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 81% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
2nd Half - GG/NG: NoPAGE ONLY
1.20
EQG 6 of 6 (100%) · ZIM 6 of 6 (100%)84.6%
Equatorial Guinea: the bet landed in 6 of 6 at home · Zimbabwe: the bet landed in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 83% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
Equatorial Guinea to Score In Both Halves: NoPAGE ONLY
1.15
EQG 6 of 6 (100%) · ZIM 6 of 6 (100%)84.6%
Equatorial Guinea: the bet landed in 6 of 6 at home · Zimbabwe: the bet landed in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 94% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
Over 0.5 first-half goalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.60
EQG 4 of 6 (67%) · ZIM 4 of 6 (67%)66%
Equatorial Guinea: the bet landed in 4 of 6 at home · Zimbabwe: the bet landed in 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 65% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
CORNERS
Over 6.5 CornersPAGE ONLY
no price yet
EQG 3 of 5 (60%) · ZIM 4 of 6 (67%)56.1%
Equatorial Guinea's games: over 6.5 corners in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Zimbabwe's games: over 6.5 corners in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 74% · each game weighed by who it was against
CARDS
no price yet
EQG 4 of 5 (80%) · ZIM 5 of 8 (62%)70.9%
Equatorial Guinea's games: over 3.5 cards in 4 of 5 at home · Zimbabwe's games: over 3.5 cards in 5 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 66% · each game weighed by who it was against
OTHER
Any Team to lead by 1 Goal at any time: YesFULL COVERIN CODES
1.10
EQG 5 of 5 (100%) · ZIM 5 of 5 (100%)94.4%
Equatorial Guinea scored first 2 of last 5, a side led by 1 in 5 · a side led by 1 in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Zimbabwe a side led by 1 in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues)
Equatorial Guinea to lead by 2 Goals at any time: NoIN CODES
1.20
EQG 5 of 5 (100%) · ZIM 5 of 5 (100%)88.9%
Equatorial Guinea scored first 2 of last 5, never led by 2 in 5 · never led by 2 in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Zimbabwe never trailed by 2 in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues)
Zimbabwe to lead by 2 Goals at any time: NoIN CODES
1.15
ZIM 5 of 5 (100%) · EQG 6 of 6 (100%)86.7%
Zimbabwe scored first 1 of last 5, never led by 2 in 5 · never led by 2 in 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Equatorial Guinea never trailed by 2 in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues)
Any Team To Score 3 or More Goals in a Row: NoIN CODES
1.11
EQG 4 of 5 (80%) · ZIM 4 of 5 (80%)83.1%
Equatorial Guinea scored first 2 of last 5, no side scored 3 in a row in 4 · no side scored 3 in a row in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Zimbabwe no side scored 3 in a row in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues)
Zimbabwe To Score 2 or More Goals in a Row: NoLEANPAGE ONLY
1.23
ZIM 4 of 5 (80%) · EQG 5 of 6 (83%)67.8%
Zimbabwe scored first 1 of last 5, never scored 2 in a row in 4 · never scored 2 in a row in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Equatorial Guinea never conceded 2 in a row in 2 of 5 (last 10, all venues)
Any Team to lead by 2 Goals at any time: NoLEANPAGE ONLY
1.47
EQG 3 of 5 (60%) · ZIM 3 of 5 (60%)64.2%
Equatorial Guinea scored first 2 of last 5, no side led by 2 in 3 · no side led by 2 in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Zimbabwe no side led by 2 in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues)
Equatorial Guinea to lead by 1 Goal at any time: YesLEANPAGE ONLY
1.82
EQG 2 of 5 (40%) · ZIM 2 of 5 (40%)36.4%
Equatorial Guinea scored first 2 of last 5, led by 1 in 2 · led by 1 in 2 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Zimbabwe trailed by 1 in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues)