THE READ
Match details. Africa Cup of Nations Qualification, Group Stage - 3. Kick-off is Thu 12 Nov, 16:00 Lagos time. It is played at Essipong Stadium, Sekondi-Takoradi.
What's at stake. Ghana are 4th on 0 points after 2 games, level on points with Somalia. A win would take them above Somalia. Somalia are 3rd on 0 points after 2 games, 6 points behind Gambia, level on points with Ghana.
Form. Ghana have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L D. In this competition Ghana have gone L L. Somalia have won none, drawn three and lost seven of their last ten, 0.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D D D.
The numbers. Ghana score 1.2 and concede one a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets and three games without a goal. Ghana average 8.0 shots (1.7 on target), 3.5 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 43% of the ball. Somalia score 0.2 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and four games without a goal. Somalia average 4.3 shots (1.5 on target), 3.0 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 40% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 93% against the records' 57%.
The read. No firm call: Ghana are the better side, but not at this price. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Ghana the likelier winners; Ghana are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Ghana.
The bets. No best bet: the strongest pick did not fit the read of this game. Predicted score: Ghana 3-0 Somalia (17% chance).
The agreed story. Ghana or the draw, a tight game.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Ghana in their last internationals: lost 2-4 v Gambia, lost 0-2 at Ivory Coast (rated above them). Somalia in their last internationals: lost 0-2 v Ivory Coast, lost 1-2 at Gambia. Too few internationals to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
PICKSONE LIST
GOALS
1.12
GHA 9 of 10 (90%) · SOM 5 of 5 (100%)89.3%
Ghana: under 5.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Somalia: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 95% · each game weighed by who it was against
1.30
GHA 8 of 10 (80%) · SOM 5 of 5 (100%)77.2%
Ghana: under 4.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Somalia: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 91% · each game weighed by who it was against
Under 3.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.72
GHA 8 of 10 (80%) · SOM 5 of 5 (100%)59%
Ghana: under 3.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Somalia: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 91% · each game weighed by who it was against
BOTH TEAMS SCORE
Both Teams to Score - NoMAININ CODES
1.35
GHA 7 of 10 (70%) · SOM 4 of 5 (80%)59.4%
Ghana: not both scored in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Somalia: not both scored in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 81% · each game weighed by who it was against
GHANA GOALS
Ghana Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
GHA 7 of 10 (70%) · SOM 3 of 5 (60%)77.2%
Ghana scored in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Somalia conceded in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 77% · each game weighed by who it was against
HALVES
Under 2.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY
1.22
GHA 9 of 10 (90%) · SOM 5 of 5 (100%)97%
Ghana: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Somalia: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 95% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
1st half - Ghana Over/Under: Under 2.5BACKUPPAGE ONLY
1.15
GHA 10 of 10 (100%) · SOM 5 of 5 (100%)97%
Ghana: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Somalia: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 100% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
1st Half - GG/NG: NoPAGE ONLY
1.10
GHA 9 of 10 (90%) · SOM 5 of 5 (100%)93.1%
Ghana: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Somalia: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 95% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
2nd Half - GG/NG: NoPAGE ONLY
1.14
GHA 9 of 10 (90%) · SOM 4 of 5 (80%)88.9%
Ghana: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Somalia: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 89% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
1st half - Somalia Over/Under: Under 0.5PAGE ONLY
1.13
SOM 5 of 5 (100%) · GHA 6 of 10 (60%)81.9%
Somalia: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · Ghana: the bet landed in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 79% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
1st Half - Ghana Clean Sheet: YesPAGE ONLY
1.13
GHA 6 of 10 (60%) · SOM 5 of 5 (100%)81.9%
Ghana: the bet landed in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Somalia: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 79% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
Double Chance & 1st Half GG/NG: Ghana/Draw & NoPAGE ONLY
1.10
GHA 6 of 10 (60%) · SOM 5 of 5 (100%)80.2%
Ghana: the bet landed in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Somalia: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 79% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
Somalia Highest Scoring Half: EqualLEANPAGE ONLY
1.34
GHA 8 of 10 (80%) · SOM 4 of 5 (80%)66.7%
Ghana: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Somalia: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 86% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
CORNERS
Over 4.5 CornersPAGE ONLY
no price yet
GHA 5 of 6 (83%) · SOM 7 of 8 (88%)86%
Ghana's games: over 4.5 corners in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Somalia's games: over 4.5 corners in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 86% · each game weighed by who it was against
Left off the list: Over 1.5 Cards (the numbers (78%) and the records (100%) are 22 points apart, and nothing settles it); Somalia or Under 2.5 Goals (the numbers (36%) and the records (80%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); Ghana or Over 2.5 Goals (the numbers (92%) and the records (67%) are 25 points apart, and nothing settles it); Draw or Under 2.5 Goals (the numbers (37%) and the records (69%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); Ghana or Both Teams Score (the numbers (95%) and the records (71%) are 24 points apart, and nothing settles it); Somalia (0:2 handicap) (the numbers (25%) and the records (71%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); Under 1.5 first-half goals (the numbers (60%) and the records (84%) are 24 points apart, and nothing settles it); 2nd Half - Ghana Over/Under: Under 2.5 (the numbers (74%) and the records (96%) are 22 points apart, and nothing settles it)
TRENDS
Ghana have scored in 70% of their games.
Somalia have scored in 10% of their games.
Ghana kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.
Somalia kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.