PFK Metallurg Bekabad vs FK Aral Samali
Match details. Pro Liga. Kick-off is Mon 9 Nov, 10:00 Lagos time.
Form. PFK Metallurg Bekabad have won seven, drawn three and lost none of their last ten league games, 2.4 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: D D W D W. FK Aral Samali have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten league games, 2.2 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W L W W W.
The numbers. PFK Metallurg Bekabad score two and concede 0.6 a game over their last ten, with six clean sheets. PFK Metallurg Bekabad average 4.3 corners and 1.5 cards a game. FK Aral Samali score 1.8 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. FK Aral Samali average 7.0 corners and 1.0 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make PFK Metallurg Bekabad the likelier winners, but FK Aral Samali are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour PFK Metallurg Bekabad.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 52%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: PFK Metallurg Bekabad 2-1 FK Aral Samali (10% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (PFK Metallurg Bekabad the favourite), an open game.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).