CD Anaitasuna vs Alaves
Match details. Copa del Rey, Round of 128. Kick-off is Tue 10 Nov, 19:00 Lagos time. It is played at Campo Txerloia, Azkoitia.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. CD Anaitasuna have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W L. In this competition CD Anaitasuna have gone W W. Alaves have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L D L L.
The numbers. CD Anaitasuna score 1.6 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. CD Anaitasuna average 2.0 corners and 1.0 cards a game. Alaves score 0.6 and concede two a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Alaves average 11.9 shots (4.0 on target), 3.4 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 39% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 3% against the records' 47%.
The read. No firm call: CD Anaitasuna are the better side, but not at this price. A mixed game. Their goals for and against make CD Anaitasuna the likelier winners; CD Anaitasuna are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour CD Anaitasuna.
The bets. Best bet: Over/Under: Under 6.5 at 1.17, rated 88%. Full cover: Draw or Over 2.5 Goals at 1.12. Whenever the best bet loses, this one wins. Predicted score: CD Anaitasuna 1-1 Alaves (12% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Alaves the favourite), a mixed game.
Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Too few cup games on either side to read.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).