ITAITA

20:45Thu 12 Nov

FRA

FRA

Italy vs France

CLASS A

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TEAM GOALS

Class A

ITAv

FRA

France Under 3.5 goals

Italy v France

International - UEFA… · 20:45

1.09odds

92%book

+5edge

2/2angles

EDGE PICKFrance or Over 2.5 Goals · 58.8% · @1.30

Book 77% · Us 59% -18 price too short

Backed by

France: the bet landed in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Italy: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 70% · H2H 2 of 4 · France: only games against sides at Italy's level · each game weighed by who it was against

· main loses on: 0-4, 1-4, 0-5, 2-4, 1-5, 0-6, 3-4, 2-5, 1-6, 0-7, 4-4, 3-5 and 65 more up to 10-10 | hedge wins on all of them

THE READ

Match details. UEFA Nations League, League A - 5. Kick-off is Thu 12 Nov, 20:45 Lagos time. It is played at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan. The referee is Istvan Kovacs.

What's at stake. Italy are 2nd on 7 points after 4 games, 3 points behind France, 1 point clear of Belgium. A win would take them level on points with France. France are 1st on 10 points after 4 games, 3 points clear of Italy.

Form. Italy have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W L D. France have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W W L.

The numbers. Italy score 1.8 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Italy average 13.2 shots (5.6 on target), 6.0 corners and 2.1 cards a game, with 46% of the ball. France score 2.1 and concede 1.1 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets. France average 17.4 shots (7.9 on target), 6.5 corners and 1.3 cards a game, with 65% of the ball.

Head to head. In the last four meetings Italy have won two, drawn one and lost one. Two of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. The last time they met, on 2 Oct 2026, it finished Italy 1-1 France: Italy had 14 shots to 18, 35% of the ball, four yellow cards.

The case against. Italy's record still gives them 20% to win.

The read. France to win. A draw is live. A tight game. France are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour France. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 1.5 goals at 86%, over 2.5 at 42%, under 4.5 at 74%.

The bets. Best bet: France Under 3.5 Goals at 1.09, rated 95% (France scored under 3.5 in 4 of 6; Italy conceded under 3.5 in 4 of 5 at home). Full cover: France win or both teams score at 1.16. Whenever the best bet loses, this one wins. Predicted score: Italy 0-1 France (11% chance).

The agreed story. France or the draw, a tight game.

Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Italy in their last internationals: won 3-1 v Turkiye, drew 1-1 at France, won 4-1 at Turkiye. France in their last internationals: won 4-1 v Belgium, drew 1-1 v Italy, won 1-0 at Belgium.

So. A banker match for France not to lose.

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

France or Draw (1UP)IN CODES

1.20

FRA 5 of 5 (100%) · ITA 6 of 6 (100%)93.8%

France scored first 4 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 5 · led or was unbeaten in 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Italy trailed or failed to win in 3 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · France: only games against sides at Italy's level

Double Chance: Draw or FranceIN CODES

1.28

FRA 6 of 6 (100%) · ITA 2 of 5 (40%)85%

France unbeaten in 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Italy failed to win 2 of 5 at home · both last 10: 86% · H2H 2 of 4 · France: only games against sides at Italy's level · each game weighed by who it was against

2nd Half - Double Chance: Draw or FrancePAGE ONLY

1.28

FRA 6 of 6 (100%) · ITA 2 of 5 (40%)84.4%

France: the bet landed in 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Italy: the bet landed in 2 of 5 at home · both last 10: 91% · H2H 2 of 4 · on half-time scores · France: only games against sides at Italy's level · each game weighed by who it was against

France or Under 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.26

FRA 6 of 6 (100%) · ITA 3 of 5 (60%)80.9%

France: the bet landed in 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Italy: the bet landed in 3 of 5 at home · both last 10: 89% · H2H 3 of 4 · France: only games against sides at Italy's level · each game weighed by who it was against

2nd Half - Draw No Bet: FrancePAGE ONLY

1.54

FRA 5 of 5 (100%) · ITA 2 of 5 (40%)76.5%

France: the bet landed in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Italy: the bet landed in 2 of 5 at home · both last 10: 85% · H2H 1 of 3 · on half-time scores · France: only games against sides at Italy's level · each game weighed by who it was against

Italy to Win to Nil: NoHELD · the odds board 91%

1.10

ITA 3 of 5 (60%) · FRA 6 of 6 (100%)65%

Italy: the bet landed in 3 of 5 at home · France: the bet landed in 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 95% · H2H 3 of 4 · France: only games against sides at Italy's level · each game weighed by who it was against

France win or both teams scoreFULL COVERHELD · the odds board 86%

1.16

FRA 6 of 6 (100%) · ITA 3 of 5 (60%)64%

France: the bet landed in 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Italy: the bet landed in 3 of 5 at home · both last 10: 95% · H2H 3 of 4 · France: only games against sides at Italy's level · each game weighed by who it was against

France (Draw No Bet)LEANPAGE ONLY

1.45

FRA 5 of 5 (100%) · ITA 2 of 5 (40%)62.3%

France won 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · Italy lost 2 of 5 at home (draws left out) · both last 10: 78% · H2H 1 of 3 · France: only games against sides at Italy's level · each game weighed by who it was against · won 6, refunded 0, lost 3

France or Over 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.30

FRA 5 of 6 (83%) · ITA 4 of 5 (80%)58.8%

France or draw and over 1.5 goalsLEANHELD · the odds board 67%

1.50

ITA 2 of 5 (40%) · FRA 4 of 6 (67%)38.7%

Italy: the bet landed in 2 of 5 at home · France: the bet landed in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 70% · H2H 2 of 4 · France: only games against sides at Italy's level · each game weighed by who it was against

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.22

ITA 4 of 5 (80%) · FRA 4 of 6 (67%)91.1%

Italy: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · France: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 71% · H2H 4 of 4 · France: only games against sides at Italy's level · each game weighed by who it was against

Over 1.5 GoalsHELD · the odds board 83%

1.20

ITA 5 of 5 (100%) · FRA 4 of 6 (67%)53.9%

Italy: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · France: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 83% · H2H 4 of 4 · France: only games against sides at Italy's level · each game weighed by who it was against

BOTH TEAMS SCORE

Both Teams to Score - YesLEANHELD · the odds board 62%

1.61

ITA 2 of 5 (40%) · FRA 3 of 6 (50%)32.8%

Italy: both scored in 2 of 5 at home · France: both scored in 3 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 61% · H2H 3 of 4 · France: only games against sides at Italy's level · each game weighed by who it was against

ITALY GOALS

Italy Under 2.5 goalsIN CODES

1.11

ITA 3 of 5 (60%) · FRA 6 of 6 (100%)92.2%

Italy scored under 2.5 in 3 of 5 at home · France conceded under 2.5 in 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 89% · H2H 3 of 4 · France: only games against sides at Italy's level · each game weighed by who it was against

Italy Under 1.5 goalsIN CODES

1.47

ITA 2 of 5 (40%) · FRA 6 of 6 (100%)72.2%

Italy scored under 1.5 in 2 of 5 at home · France conceded under 1.5 in 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 86% · H2H 2 of 4 · France: only games against sides at Italy's level · each game weighed by who it was against

Italy Over 0.5 goalsLEANHELD · the odds board 73%

1.37

ITA 4 of 5 (80%) · FRA 3 of 6 (50%)48.5%

Italy scored in 4 of 5 at home · France conceded in 3 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 65% · H2H 4 of 4 · France: only games against sides at Italy's level · each game weighed by who it was against

FRANCE GOALS

France Under 3.5 goalsMAININ CODES

1.09

FRA 4 of 6 (67%) · ITA 4 of 5 (80%)96.6%

France scored under 3.5 in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Italy conceded under 3.5 in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 76% · H2H 4 of 4 · France: only games against sides at Italy's level · each game weighed by who it was against

France Under 2.5 goalsIN CODES

1.32

FRA 4 of 6 (67%) · ITA 4 of 5 (80%)85.2%

France scored under 2.5 in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Italy conceded under 2.5 in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 76% · H2H 3 of 4 · France: only games against sides at Italy's level · each game weighed by who it was against

France Over 0.5 goalsHELD · the odds board 85%

1.17

FRA 6 of 6 (100%) · ITA 3 of 5 (60%)57.5%

France scored in 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Italy conceded in 3 of 5 at home · both last 10: 95% · H2H 3 of 4 · France: only games against sides at Italy's level · each game weighed by who it was against

HALVES

Under 2.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.16

ITA 5 of 5 (100%) · FRA 5 of 6 (83%)97%

Italy: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · France: the bet landed in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 88% · H2H 3 of 4 · on half-time scores · France: only games against sides at Italy's level · each game weighed by who it was against

1st half - France Over/Under: Under 1.5PAGE ONLY

1.19

FRA 5 of 6 (83%) · ITA 5 of 5 (100%)97%

France: the bet landed in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Italy: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · both last 10: 92% · H2H 3 of 4 · on half-time scores · France: only games against sides at Italy's level · each game weighed by who it was against

Excluded Number of Goals - First Half: 3+PAGE ONLY

1.13

ITA 5 of 5 (100%) · FRA 5 of 6 (83%)96.9%

Both Halves Over 1.5: NoPAGE ONLY

1.21

ITA 5 of 5 (100%) · FRA 6 of 6 (100%)89.4%

Italy: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · France: the bet landed in 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 95% · H2H 3 of 4 · on half-time scores · France: only games against sides at Italy's level · each game weighed by who it was against

Excluded Number of Goals - First Half: 2PAGE ONLY

1.24

ITA 5 of 5 (100%) · FRA 6 of 6 (100%)87.1%

Italy: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · France: the bet landed in 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 99% · H2H 3 of 4 · on half-time scores · France: only games against sides at Italy's level · each game weighed by who it was against

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.20

ITA 5 of 5 (100%) · FRA 6 of 6 (100%)83%

Italy: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · France: the bet landed in 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 100% · H2H 4 of 4 · on half-time scores · France: only games against sides at Italy's level · each game weighed by who it was against

Under 1.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.59

ITA 5 of 5 (100%) · FRA 5 of 6 (83%)82%

Italy: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · France: the bet landed in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 87% · H2H 2 of 4 · on half-time scores · France: only games against sides at Italy's level · each game weighed by who it was against

CORNERS

Over 8.5 CornersIN CODES

1.57

ITA 3 of 5 (60%) · FRA 5 of 6 (83%)74.5%

Italy's games: over 8.5 corners in 3 of 5 at home · France's games: over 8.5 corners in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 77% · France: only games against sides at Italy's level · each game weighed by who it was against

CARDS

Over 2.5 CardsIN CODES

1.20

ITA 4 of 5 (80%) · FRA 4 of 6 (67%)79.3%

Italy's games: over 2.5 cards in 4 of 5 at home · France's games: over 2.5 cards in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 81% · France: only games against sides at Italy's level · each game weighed by who it was against

OTHER

GG/NG 2+: NoIN CODES

1.17

ITA 5 of 5 (100%) · FRA 6 of 6 (100%)97%

Italy: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · France: the bet landed in 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 100% · H2H 4 of 4 · France: only games against sides at Italy's level · each game weighed by who it was against

Italy To Score 2 or More Goals in a Row: NoIN CODES

1.29

ITA 2 of 5 (40%) · FRA 3 of 7 (43%)84.1%

Italy scored first 3 of last 5, never scored 2 in a row in 2 · never scored 2 in a row in 3 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · France never conceded 2 in a row in 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · France: only games against sides at Italy's level

Italy to lead by 2 Goals at any time: NoIN CODES

1.15

ITA 2 of 5 (40%) · FRA 3 of 7 (43%)84.1%

Italy scored first 3 of last 5, never led by 2 in 2 · never led by 2 in 3 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · France never trailed by 2 in 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · France: only games against sides at Italy's level

Italy to lead by 1 Goal at any time: NoPAGE ONLY

1.72

ITA 2 of 5 (40%) · FRA 2 of 7 (29%)72.8%

Italy scored first 3 of last 5, never led by 1 in 2 · never led by 1 in 2 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · France never trailed by 1 in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · France: only games against sides at Italy's level

Any Team To Score 2 or More Goals in a Row: YesLEANHELD · the odds board 64%

1.56

ITA 4 of 5 (80%) · FRA 6 of 7 (86%)38.4%

Italy scored first 3 of last 5, a side scored 2 in a row in 4 · a side scored 2 in a row in 6 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · France a side scored 2 in a row in 3 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · France: only games against sides at Italy's level

Left off the list: 1X2 - 2UP: France (the numbers (45%) and the records (67%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); Any Team to lead by 2 Goals at any time: Yes (the numbers (43%) and the records (56%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); France to lead by 1 Goal at any time: Yes (the numbers (58%) and the records (92%) are 33 points apart, and nothing settles it); France 1UP (the numbers (58%) and the records (92%) are 33 points apart, and nothing settles it)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 0–1 10.8%

Italy goals →

France goals ↓

0-09%

1-08%

2-05%

3-02%

4-00.5%

5-00.1%

0-111%

1-113%

2-17%

3-13%

4-10.7%

5-10.2%

0-28%

1-29%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.5%

5-20.1%

0-34%

1-34%

2-32%

3-30.8%

4-30.2%

5-30.0%

0-41%

1-41%

2-40.8%

3-40.3%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.4%

1-50.4%

2-50.2%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

ITALYWWWLWDLWDW2.00 PPG

FRANCEWWWWLLWWDW2.20 PPG

THE NUMBERS

ITALY HOMExFRANCE AWAY

2.00SCORED A GAME2.101.10CONCEDED A GAME1.1030%CLEAN SHEETS50%25%FAILED TO SCORE0%6.00CORNERS A GAME6.502.10CARDS A GAME1.301.89xG1.412.08xG AGAINST1.01

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 4

ITALY 2 · 50%DRAW 1FRANCE 1 · 25%

3 of 4BOTH TEAMS SCORED

4 of 4OVER 1.5 GOALS

2 of 4OVER 2.5 GOALS

2 of 4OVER 3.5 GOALS

2008-06-17Italy 2 – 0 France

2024-09-06Italy 3 – 1 France

2024-11-17Italy 1 – 3 France

2026-10-02Italy 1 – 1 France

TRENDS

Italy have scored in 90% of their games.

France have scored in 90% of their games.

Italy kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

France kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetshead to headleague tableteam newscornerscards