CD Barquereno vs Tropezon
CD Barquereno: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · Tropezon: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 80% · CD Barquereno: only games against sides at Tropezon's level · Tropezon: only games against sides at CD Barquereno's level
Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 3. Kick-off is Sun 8 Nov, 17:00 Lagos time.
Form. CD Barquereno have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten league games, 0.8 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W L D W L. Tropezon have won seven, drawn two and lost none of their last nine league games, 2.6 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W D D W W.
The numbers. CD Barquereno score 0.6 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. CD Barquereno average 2.0 corners and 3.0 cards a game. Tropezon score 2.1 and concede 0.6 a game over their last nine, with five clean sheets. Tropezon average 13.0 shots (6.3 on target), 2.7 corners and 1.0 cards a game.
The read. Tropezon to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Tropezon the likelier winners; Tropezon are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Tropezon. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 53%.
The bets. Best bet: Tropezon (Draw No Bet) at 1.14, rated 83% (Tropezon won 7 of 8 (draws left out); CD Barquereno lost 4 of 5 at home (draws left out)). Full cover: CD Barquereno or Tropezon at 1.20. Whenever the best bet loses, this one wins. Predicted score: CD Barquereno 1-2 Tropezon (10% chance).
The agreed story. Tropezon or the draw, an open game.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).