UE Porreres vs CD Llosetense
Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 11. Kick-off is Sun 8 Nov, 16:30 Lagos time.
Form. UE Porreres have won six, drawn none and lost three of their last nine league games, 2.0 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W W W L L. CD Llosetense have won four, drawn one and lost four of their last nine league games, 1.4 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W L L L W.
The numbers. UE Porreres score 1.4 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. UE Porreres average 10.7 shots (4.3 on target), 7.0 corners and 3.7 cards a game. CD Llosetense score 1.1 and concede 1.2 a game over their last nine, with three clean sheets and five games without a goal. CD Llosetense average 8.2 shots (4.8 on target), 5.0 corners and 2.2 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 51%.
The case against. CD Llosetense's record still gives them 26% to win.
The read. UE Porreres to win. Their goals for and against make UE Porreres the likelier winners; UE Porreres are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour UE Porreres.
The bets. Best bet: UE Porreres (Draw No Bet) at 1.32, rated 74% (UE Porreres won 4 of 5 at home (draws left out); CD Llosetense lost 4 of 5 away (draws left out)). The safer one: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.30 (86%). Backup: GG/NG 2+: No at 1.10. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Predicted score: UE Porreres 1-0 CD Llosetense (13% chance).
The agreed story. UE Porreres or the draw, goals in between.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).