Match details. Copa Santa Catarina, Semi-finals. Kick-off is Sun 8 Nov, 21:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. CN Marcilio Dias SC have won three, drawn five and lost two of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D D D W. Figueirense FC SC have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D W W.
The numbers. CN Marcilio Dias SC score 2.6 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. CN Marcilio Dias SC average 6.7 shots (2.9 on target), 3.8 corners and 3.7 cards a game. Figueirense FC SC score 1.4 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Figueirense FC SC average 11.4 shots (4.4 on target), 6.8 corners and 2.5 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings CN Marcilio Dias SC have won four, drawn two and lost three. Six of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, CN Marcilio Dias SC won two, one was drawn and Figueirense FC SC won one. The last time they met, on 16 Oct 2026, it finished CN Marcilio Dias SC 2-2 Figueirense FC SC.
The read. A draw. An open game. Little separates them, and both sides draw often. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 63%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: CN Marcilio Dias SC 2-2 Figueirense FC SC (7% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (CN Marcilio Dias SC the favourite), an open game.
Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. CN Marcilio Dias SC in their last cup games: drew 2-2 v Barra FC SC. Figueirense FC SC in their last cup games: lost 2-3 at Blumenau EC SC, won 1-0 v Joinville EC SC. Too few cup games to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).