Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 14. Kick-off is Sun 8 Nov, 16:30 Lagos time.
Form. CD Santa Amalia have won one, drawn six and lost three of their last ten league games, 0.9 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: D D L D L. CD Guadiana have won none, drawn one and lost eight of their last nine league games, 0.1 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L L L L L.
The numbers. CD Santa Amalia score one and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and four games without a goal. CD Santa Amalia average 10.8 shots (3.8 on target), 4.7 corners and 4.2 cards a game. CD Guadiana score 0.3 and concede 2.8 a game over their last nine, with no clean sheets and six games without a goal. CD Guadiana average 5.0 corners and 2.0 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 83% against the records' 49%. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 53%.
The read. No firm call: CD Santa Amalia are the better side, but not at this price. Their goals for and against make CD Santa Amalia the likelier winners; CD Santa Amalia are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour CD Santa Amalia.
The bets. No best bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: CD Santa Amalia 1-0 CD Guadiana (13% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (CD Santa Amalia the favourite), goals in between.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).