Match details. L2, Group South - 8. Kick-off is Tue 10 Nov, 20:30 Lagos time. It is played at Broadfield Stadium, Crawley.
Form. Crawley Town have won one, drawn none and lost one of their last two league games, 1.5 points a game. Their last two in the league, newest first: W L. Brentford U21 have won one, drawn none and lost one of their last two league games, 1.5 points a game. Their last two in the league, newest first: L W.
The numbers. Crawley Town score 2.5 and concede two a game over their last two, with one clean sheet. Crawley Town average 13.6 shots (5.6 on target), 4.2 corners and 2.1 cards a game, with 49% of the ball. Brentford U21 score one and concede 3.5 a game over their last two, with one clean sheet. Brentford U21 average 12.1 shots (4.3 on target), 5.1 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 52% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Crawley Town the likelier winners, but Brentford U21 are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Brentford U21.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 69%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Crawley Town 2-1 Brentford U21 (8% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Brentford U21 the favourite), an open game.
Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Crawley Town in their last cup games: lost 0-2 at Wimborne Town (3 divisions below), won 4-0 v Bromley FC (a division above), lost 1-4 at Milton Keynes Dons (a division above). Brentford U21 in their last cup games: won 2-1 at Wycombe Wanderers Development Team. Too few cup games to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).