CA Penarol Montevideo vs Liverpool FC Montevideo
Match details. Primera Division, Women. Kick-off is Sun 8 Nov, 19:00 Lagos time.
Form. CA Penarol Montevideo have won nine, drawn one and lost none of their last ten, 2.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W W W. Liverpool FC Montevideo have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L D W.
The numbers. CA Penarol Montevideo score 4.2 and concede 0.3 a game in their last six at home, with four clean sheets. CA Penarol Montevideo average 12.5 shots (8.0 on target), 9.2 corners and 1.0 cards a game. Liverpool FC Montevideo score 2.1 and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet. Liverpool FC Montevideo average 5.8 corners and 2.0 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 90% against the records' 63%.
The read. No firm call: CA Penarol Montevideo are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make CA Penarol Montevideo the likelier winners; CA Penarol Montevideo are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour CA Penarol Montevideo. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 63%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: CA Penarol Montevideo 2-1 Liverpool FC Montevideo (9% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (CA Penarol Montevideo the favourite), an open game.
Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. CA Penarol Montevideo in their last cup games: lost 0-2 v Montevideo City Torque. Too few cup games to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).