Crewe Alexandra vs Wigan Athletic

Match details. EFL Trophy, Group North - 2. Kick-off is Tue 10 Nov, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Alexandra Stadium, Crewe.

Form. Crewe Alexandra have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L L W. Wigan Athletic have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W L L.

The numbers. Crewe Alexandra score 2.6 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Crewe Alexandra average 8.8 shots (3.1 on target), 2.5 corners and 1.9 cards a game, with 46% of the ball. Wigan Athletic score one and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Wigan Athletic average 10.6 shots (3.5 on target) and 2.6 cards a game, with 45% of the ball.

Head to head. In the last eight meetings Crewe Alexandra have won two, drawn one and lost five. Two of the eight went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. In the last four, Crewe Alexandra won one and Wigan Athletic won three. The last time they met, on 15 Mar 2022, it finished Crewe Alexandra 0-2 Wigan Athletic: Crewe Alexandra had 7 shots to 13, 49% of the ball, three yellow cards.

Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their xG points to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 59%; six of the last eight meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.

The case against. Wigan Athletic's record still gives them 25% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 59%.

The read. Crewe Alexandra to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Crewe Alexandra the likelier winners; Crewe Alexandra are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Crewe Alexandra. Their xG points to a tight game. Six of the last eight meetings went under 2.5.

The bets. No best bet: the strongest pick did not fit the read of this game. The safer one: Wigan Athletic Under 2.5 Goals at 1.11 (90%). Predicted score: Crewe Alexandra 1-0 Wigan Athletic (13% chance).

The agreed story. No side to back (Crewe Alexandra the favourite), a tight game.

Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Wigan Athletic play a division above Crewe Alexandra. Crewe Alexandra in their last cup games: won 2-1 v AFC Wimbledon (a division above), drew 2-2 at Blackpool FC (a division above), won 4-1 v Aston Villa U21. Wigan Athletic in their last cup games: won 3-0 at Boreham Wood FC (2 divisions below), won 3-2 v Blackpool FC. Too few cup games to judge the side from.

So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.